Questioning the Unlikely

Nine days have passed since the first excited rumors surfaced that al Qaeda in Iraq leader Musab al Zarqawi may have died in a dawn raid in Mosul November 19. Shortly thereafter, remains were sent for DNA tests, and it was said that was "highly unlikely" that al-Zarqawi was among the dead.

That was over a week ago, and "highly unlikely" is still all we have from official sources.

But what is "likely?"

It is likely that a conclusive DNA test can be performed in five days or less from commercial sources, and it is probable that samples with as high a priority as al Zarqawi's would be determined before then.

It is perhaps likely that in the event of al Zarqawi's sudden termination, that U.S forces would intentionally keep quite about his death for a period of time, as the uncertainty in the chain of command could cause terrorists to make mistakes that might expose them.

It is highly unlikely that Abu Musab al Zarqawi is dead... but it isn't impossible, and nor is it highly unlikely that his death would be played out with not-quite confirmations and partial denials lasting as long as feasibly possible.