Conffederate
Confederate

November 14, 2006

Pu: Something Wicked...

Iran can quit lying about their intent to use their nuclear program for peaceful means:

International Atomic Energy experts have found unexplained plutonium and enriched uranium traces in a nuclear waste facility in Iran and have asked Tehran for an explanation, an IAEA report said Tuesday.

The report prepared for next week's meeting of the 35-nation IAEA also faulted Tehran for not cooperating with the agency's attempts to investigate suspicious aspects of Iran's nuclear program that have lead to fears it might be interested in developing nuclear arms. As well, the four-page paper made available to The Associated Press confirmed that Iran continues uranium enrichment experiments in defiance of the U.N. Security Council.

Plutonium is an important by-product of the fuel cycle in operating nuclear reactors, producing almost a third of a nuclear power plant's energy.

The problem? Plutonium (Pu) should not logically exist outside of nuclear power production, and Iran does not yet have that capability. Bushehr is to have Iran's first production reactor, but it is still under construction.

That would seem to indicate that either Iran is importing plutonium, or that it has an undeclared reactor, which is admittedly far less likely, but technically possible. In any event, both the plutonium and enriched uranium found at the waste site may serve to push Israel closer to mounting a pre-emptive strike against Iran, which would in turn likely re-ignite Hezbollah's rocket attacks against Israel from Lebanon, putting UNFIL's "peacekeeping" forces in the middle, precisely where Hezbollah would prefer them.

It looks like a wider war in the Middle East may be coming sooner rather than later, and I'm increasingly convinced there is very little that anyone can do to stop it.

Posted by Confederate Yankee at November 14, 2006 01:48 PM | TrackBack
Comments

Question.
Was Ahmadinejad's announcement today that he'll have nuclear fuel by March 1} just an announcement he made to get on the West's nerves?
2) His way of saying "Give up on sanctions and on trying to stop me, it's a done deal already."
3) His way of saying "I've got nuclear capability so it's time to give in to my influence in Lebanon and to start dealing with me.

Posted by: CAL at November 14, 2006 02:04 PM

Somebody explain why this thing is not going to end with either:

-A big, bright orange ball.

-A re-shuffled balance of power and ass-kissing of hairy middle-eastern hams to the maximum degree.

Dan Patterson
Arrogant Infidel

Posted by: Dan Patterson at November 14, 2006 02:32 PM

And what will the UN do about Iran's breaking of agreements? Absolutely nothing. Isn't it about time we shed ourselves of this corrupt, do-nothing organization that spends most of its time criticizing the U.S. and little time actually responding to crisis issues?

Get US out of the UN!!!

Posted by: Todd at November 14, 2006 03:41 PM

Todd,

The UN is only as effective as it's member states' cooperation. We (the US) are as much a part of the problem as other nations (our veto of the resolution condemning a recent attack by Israel is a perfect example). Getting the US out of the UN is not realistic or even a good idea, unless you want to diminish our own power and influence.

Furthermore, the UN is not a collective defense agency, and is only partially a collective security organization. This means that the UN is tasked with many things other than waging war... I suggest you learn about those other roles (post-conflict resolution is one example) before spouting off about how bad the UN is.

Posted by: ME at November 14, 2006 04:05 PM

there is certainly nothing that can be done if you don't talk to them. this foreign policy is childish to say the least. it's like michael jordan...you can't stop him, you can only hope to contain him. bushes lack of a foreign policy has managed to contain nothing -- it has only succeeded in speeding n. korea and iran towards nuclear armament. maybe 41 has some more friends that can help him out now that he has f'ed it up so badly.

Posted by: jay k. at November 14, 2006 04:26 PM

Yankee, you are overlooking an couple of essential facts: Russia is building the plant for the Iranians, and they have agreed to supply the Iranians with the needed nuclear fuel and the known date for completion was sometime in 2006. So, it's very possible they are much farther along than is publically being acknowledge by all sides. That's my suspicion.

On February 27, 2005, and after a one-day delay, Iran and Russia finally signed an agreement regarding providing the needed nuclear fuel for the Bushehr facility. Under the terms of the aggreement, Russia would provide nuclear fuel to Iran, who would in turn return the spent fuel back to Russia.

Also, since the late 90's there have been a number of contradictory statements from both the Russians and the Iranians as to the eventual online status of the plant,(a combination of delays and intentional diversion no doubt) the general consensus is that the plant would be near completion in 2006. (Thus the increased activity against it by the US and others.) A statement was released to this affect:

On 11 December 2004 Speaker of the Russian Federation Council Sergei Mironov stated that the first unit of the Bushehr nuclear power plant will be put into commission in 2006. He made the remarks during an official visit to Iran. "Moscow has a principled position on Russian-Iranian nuclear energy cooperation. Iran as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty has the right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes," the speaker stressed.

Considering the tnese atmosphere, it would not be surprising to learn that the plant is indeed in testing phase as the spent fuel would attest to..

And, this statement isn't entirely correct:

Plutonium (Pu) should not logically exist outside of nuclear power production...

Pu exists in spent fuel rods, which are removed from the inner system and stored outside of the nuclear facility.

What "traces" means, is not clear from the article you cite, but I'd say there is the real chance that spent rods are being moved about in order to hide the possible fact that the plant is online, or in testing phase and soon to be online.

First two quotes from Global Security.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/bushehr.htm

Posted by: David @ SP at November 14, 2006 05:42 PM

there is certainly nothing that can be done if you don't talk to them.
Jay, I've been hearing alot about this suggestion to talk with Iran. Even Tony Blair's been saying it. But truthfully it's mindboggling to me. The Iranians are dead set in getting the bomb. They are trying to make an unholy alliance with Al Qaeda. (to quote the "Confederate Yankee" a couple of posts back) They've got too much control in Lebanon. Ahminajed (or however you spell his name) has talked about "spreading the message of martydom worldwide". (those were pretty close to the words he used) What exactly is talking with him going to do? Do you think talking with him will make him relinquish all that delicious stuff? I fail to understand this suggestion. Call me an over reactionary person if you want, but I'm dumbfounded.

Posted by: cal at November 14, 2006 06:03 PM

Cal,

There's nothing to be dumbfounded about. The mindset of Islam in the Middle East is pretty simple. Take over the world for Islam. That's it! No big secret. They just love this Liberal Horseshit attitude of we just need to talk and understand them, then they will just roll over like a good dog so we can rub their belly. Then we'll join hands and skip down the road singing Kum bi ya and the world we be great again without the evil conservatives in power.

Wake up braindead brainwashed Liberals. You can't deal with these people rationally. They hate us because we (the West) have freedom. They have hated the infidel west for many many years. I worked in the Middle east for years and saw it first hand. All this started back in the 70s. The US government blew it years ago. Both Dems and Repubs. Now we have a real mess to deal with. Look what happened to Lebanon. It was just the beginning.

JM

Posted by: JM at November 14, 2006 09:50 PM

And on the UN. I've seen first hand their wonderful corrupt influence on the world. They are about as useful as an underwater hair dryer. I second the Get US out of the un!

Posted by: JM at November 14, 2006 09:52 PM

Someone tell the 12th Imam to get the hell out of the well, and do something! I just do not understand how anyone can pray to a false moon god in a well.

ROPMA.

Posted by: Leatherneck at November 14, 2006 10:26 PM

JM,

If muslims cannot be dealt with rationally, then what do you suppose Bush thought he would accomplish by invading Iraq?

They hate us because we have freedom? That's incredibly simplistic, especially given that they have no real idea as to what freedom as we know it is. I bet they hate us far more for decades of meddling in Middle Eastern geopolitics. America supported Saddam for years. America supported the overthrow of Iran's democratically elected government in 1953. America always sides with Israel, even when they are the ones who misbehave.

Years of careless Middle East policy has given the Arab world plenty of reasons to hate us. Add a good dose of radical Islam and here we are.

Soon enough, Iran will have the bomb. What do you propose that America (or anybody else) do about it? If you have any good ideas, write 'em down and send them to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., Washington DC. I hear Bush is open to new ideas these days...

Enjoy!

Posted by: Tom Pain at November 15, 2006 12:03 AM

Soon enough, Iran will have the bomb. What do you propose that America (or anybody else) do about it?

Do what JFK did. Blockade and threaten a nuclear war.

It worked.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at November 15, 2006 01:18 AM

Purple,

Cuba is an island in our back yard. How the hell would we isolate Iran? If we did, what would that mean to global oil markets and, subsequently, our own economy?

It might very well boil down to mutually assured destuction, just like the cold war. That is, if somebody doesn't get the bright idea to volunteer all his fellow Iranians for martyrdom.

Posted by: Tom Pain at November 15, 2006 01:51 AM

Tom,

For some reason you assume I back Bush. That is not true at all! The Western Leaders really don’t want to recognize what they are dealing with. Or that is their plan for gaining control of the world’s population. Choose your own poison.

They hated us long before we were born. This goes back to the founding of the cult called Islam. I studied the Koran many years ago because I actually was interested in converting to Islam and becoming a citizen of Saudi Arabia. The more I studied Islam the more I realized it was rooted in violence, hate, intolerance, and conquest. These are the things taught to children in school. The infidels must be conquered and Islam must prevail as the only true belief system on earth. Unlike most other belief systems Islam is their total way of life in the end. In Saudi for instance they have two groups of police driving around patrolling. One group is the regular traffic police and the other is the religious police. I dealt with their culture in their country because the money was very good and I knew that I could escape the insanity and return to the West. Now Islam is coming to the West with one purpose. To destroy the West force Islam on the rest of the world. It’s crystal clear to me, but I don't look at things with multi colored glasses from the 60s. Its not any polictical party in the West that brings on their hatred. And they do hate us because our freedom does not allow their belief system to be inforced. I talked first hand with people that survived the conquest of Lebanon by Islam. And that is exactly what it was.

JM

Posted by: JM at November 15, 2006 08:16 AM

The Jews learned first-hand to believe a man that says he wants to kill you - what difference the reason? I don't believe we need to acquire that lesson first-hand as well.

Posted by: Cindi at November 15, 2006 09:01 AM

Cuba is an island in our back yard. How the hell would we isolate Iran?

Are they gonna ship all that oil out overland in trucks? Don't think so. The strait of Hormuz is how wide again compared to the coastline of Cuba? Take a rough guess in terms of miles needing to be cordoned off. By my ruler, Iran looks a lot easier to choke off than Cuba ever was. Perhaps you can explain in detail why I'm wrong. Please be specific.

If we did, what would that mean to global oil markets and, subsequently, our own economy?

Oh, so we should let Iran nuke someone because it would hurt economically to stop them. Good logic there. If FDR had used such logic, all of Europe would be speaking German right now.

This is the first time I've ever seen a leftist make the argument that we should allow certified loons to nuke people because stopping it might be somehow "inconvenient".

Posted by: Purple Avenger at November 16, 2006 12:38 AM