I'm sure he's reporting the right number...but there's a catch:

They are certainly counting each and every rifle and pistol round left behind and/or scattered from the IDF air strikes hitting Hezzy ammo bunkers. And you could get those kind of numbers if you did count each and every bullet you found...which is technically an unexploded ordinance. More hype to make their mission more "flashy" (if you'll pardon the pun) and the hype makes Israel look bad.

So, were there a million UXO's out there after the IDF left? Sure, you could say that, but unfired small arms rounds aren't bombs unless you're into the whole apples and oranges comparisons (which is something the Arabs are always doing when it relates to Israel).

Given your estimate of 16% dud rate of unexploded bomblets, to get 1,000,000 unexploded bomblets you would have needed a starting number of 6.25 million (1 million / 16 x 100). If each shell contains 88 bomblets, you would need a mere 71,022 shells to leave behind a million unexploded bomblets (6,225,000 / 88).

That would make the actual number of shells less than 1% of your estimate.

Consider the source. BBC, Associated (With Terrorists) Press, CNN, the U.N., all noted for lying through their teeth.

The U.N. reported a sharp spike in violent deaths in Iraq last month. The Iraqi Health Minister said 'the U.N. is lying' the deaths were 1/4 of the U.N. count. He didn't studder, 'they are lying'. I believe the Iraqi Health Minister since an in-country blogger also says the attacks have been greatly reduced. Remember, Oct was the all out effort by the U.N./Terrorists to influence the American elections. Americans like the people of Spain fell for the propaganda hook, line and sinker. That proves that over 50% of the American voting public doesn't have the guts to protect this country or support freedon anywhere in the world.

Does the fact that you have a personal bias against the UN somehow magically correct the math this article was based on? Or are you just trying to deflect attention from the issue at hand?

ff11, thanks for catching my screw-up. I indeed wrote 7,142,858 shells when I meant to say submunitions.

The 16% dud rate was for a specific kind of U.S. air-dropped cluster bombs; the 14% figure for the 155mm artillery-delivered DPICM shells is correct, meaning that 7,142,858 submunitions, or 81,168 DPICM shells, were fired in just 33 days.

That is still a phenominal claim, by any standard.

Does the fact that you have a personal bias against the UN somehow magically correct the math this article was based on? Or are you just trying to deflect attention from the issue at hand?

I havea bias... towards honesty in the media's reporting.

Check out the link to the MAG press release in the main post. They do quite a bit of the clean-up of submunitions and other unexploded munitions, and they cite a U.N. report that "they have seen around 100,000 unexploded cluster bomblets at 359 separate sites in Lebanon."

That's a far, far cry than the million that the BBC claims.

You'll also note that MAG also does not try to claim that all of these submunitions came from Israeli artillery. Hezbollah had rocket-delivered cluster munitions of their own, some of which were destroyed by Israeli strikes on the ground and were photographed by the world's media.

If anyone is being intentionally dishonest with numbers, or trying to deflect attention from... what exactly?... Hezbollah's complicity in starting this war, or their nearly 100% targeting of civilian targets?... I'd submit to you that that "anyone" would be the BBC.

Sorry if I got overly aggressive. Your numbers for submunitions sound right. Whether that is a reasonable number or not, I don't know. I know that Hezbollah reportedly fired over 4000 missiles, so I'm not sure if 80,000 shells fired by Israel would be an unrealistic number.

Regarding MAG, just because that 80 member team has FOUND 100.000 bomblets to date, does not mean that they have already found the majority.

Regarding the Hezbollah rocket delivered cluster munitions, do you have a source for this claim? I seem to recall only hearing about rockets filled with bolts and screws.

A little article from Human Rights Watch called Lebanon/Israel: Hezbollah Hit Israel with Cluster Munitions during Conflict" which said, in part:

Hezbollah fired cluster munitions into civilian areas in northern Israel during the recent conflict, Human Rights Watch reported today. This is the first time that Hezbollah's use of these controversial weapons has been confirmed.

[snip]

Each of the Type-81 cluster munition 122mm rockets used by Hezbollah carries 39 Type-90 or MZD submunitions. Each submunition in turn shoots out hundreds of steel spheres, about 3.5mm in diameter, with deadly force. Human Rights Watch discovered evidence of Hezbollah�s unprecedented use of this cluster munition in the course of ongoing investigations of the group�s attacks on northern Israel during the war that lasted from July 12 until August 14. Israeli authorities had until now prevented publication of details of Hezbollah cluster strikes in Israel, citing security concerns.

Also in the article is another U.N. credited claim that Israel used as many as 4 million submunitions in Lebanon, 1 million of which didn't explode.

So, the U.N. is claiming Israel alone dropped roughly twice as many cluster submunitions out of 98-lb artillery shells in Lebanon, as we did with neary 1000-lb airplane delivered bombs--with more than twice the payload--in the Gulf War. On top of that, they are claiming a dud rate nearly double that of the worst confirmed failure rates I've seen for these kind of munitions. By any chance did the U.N., like the media, get most of their numbers directly from Hezbollah?

Regarding MAG, just because that 80 member team has FOUND 100.000 bomblets to date, does not mean that they have already found the majority.

Actually, you are more than likely wrong here, as well, on multiple levels.

First, MAG doens't claim that their teams have found the munitions. Most submunitions were reported by civilians to the appropriate civil authorities.

Second, DPICM submunitions are not like convential bombs still recovered in Europe after WWII that have the capabilty to bury themselves deep underground. DPICM submunitions sit on the surface, where they are easily found.

Third, once one submunition is found, the entire area is typically swept by EoD to make certain other submunitions aren't laying around.

It is quite likely that a supermajority of the duds have been found. Whether they will all be disposed of in a timely manner after being identified is another issue.

It's not a matter of how many pounds of explosives were used, but what fraction was composed of cluster bombs. We tend not to use cluster bombs in areas that would be likely to affect civilian populations, and were upset enough with Israel for using them to hold up rocket shipments during this conflict.

You seem to be shocked by the rougly 4000 bomblets used by Hezbollah, while you are totally accepting of the 4,000,000 bomblets used by Israel (both figures from the same article), and you don't see a bias in your position?

The equivalent of 102 shells an hour, 24 hours a day for 33 days, seems a bit much. And lobbing cluster-shells isn't the only purpose for firing artillery, so I'd expect there to be many more than just 80,000 to have been fired if 80,000 were fired at all. That would up the shells per day considerably.

Artillery isn't fired willy-nilly by the IDF the way Hezbollah shoots off their rockets. Targets need to be determined and, with cluster-bombs, the intended targets aren't stationary, so I'd expect that forward spotters or some other surveillance would be required both for acquiring the targets and verifying elimination.

To fire some 80,000 cluster shells seems like a lot of forward work, and rather ineffective at that considering the IDF claims they only killed some 500 Hezbollah fighters, not to mention that a lot of those fighters were killed by means other than artillery shells.

And just to note, the IDF never even hinted at the efforts of the artillery work, neither did the press report much about the devastation visited on southern Lebanon by the IDF raining some 80,000 shells upon it during those 33 days. However, the IDF did make an effort to announce there naval and aerial efforts, which was reported in the press to a considerable extent. That was summarized by the IDF here:

http://www1.idf.il/dover/site/mainpage.asp?clr=1&sl=EN&id=7&docid=56539

CY's skepticism seems fully warranted here and until the 80 member MAG team does find the majority, or even all, for that matter, the BBC ought to stick to reporting what is known, not what they want to presume. Then again, maybe CY is on to something: BBC reporters botch things rather easily.

"Actually, you are more than likely wrong here, as well, on multiple levels."

----------------------------

Wrong here, "as well"? Let's not forget that you were the one who was wrong. Regarding MAG, Your guess that the majority of duds have been found seems to be entirely unfounded.

First, over 100,000 bomblets have already been found.

Second, the ones that are found are likely to be in the more populated areas (cities, villages)

Third, we won't know if the supermajority have been found until and unless they stop finding any more.

The equivalent of 102 shells an hour, 24 hours a day for 33 days, seems a bit much.
-----------------
Assuming they were using one launcher, yes, that would be a bit much. Assuming they were using hundreds, not so much, actually it makes it seem like they were loafing much of the time.

Also note that just because Israel has used the DPICM shells to deliver cluster bombs doesn't mean that they have not used any other means:

Israel has in its arsenal cluster munitions delivered by aircraft, artillery and rockets. Israel is a major producer and exporter of cluster munitions, primarily artillery projectiles and rockets containing M85 DPICM (Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munition) submunitions. Israeli Military Industries, an Israeli government-owned weapons manufacturer, has reportedly produced more than 60 million M85 DPICM submunitions. Israel also produces at least six different types of air-dropped cluster bombs, and has imported from the United States M26 rockets for its Multiple Launch Rocket Systems.

BBC ?

Its like getting your facts from a comic book

BBC Mantra
"put out story before getting facts or truth "

1984

ff11......Hezbolah did not fire "missiles" into Isreal, they fired "Rockets". Theres a huge difference between the two

and do you really think that their warheads were filled with "nuts and bolts"? How do nuts and bolts start fires? Is there any circumstance where you can see Iran shipping expensive rockets but not shipping the inexpensive explosives for the warheads?

get real

You tell me, here is the reality:

http://vitalperspective.typepad.com/vital_perspective_clarity/2006/07/human_rights_wa.html

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/7/24/154609.shtml

Do your own search for "Hezbollah rockets filled with", pick a news source you believe.

I'm not claiming that they were not deadly. It was war. But with very rare exceptions, they were NOT cluster weapons. The difference is that cluster weapons keep killing and maiming LONG after the war is over. Ball bearings do not.

As a former Fire Support Officer with a Paladin BN let me back up Bob here that this report is a turd blossom. No freaking way. I doubt if they even have the number of shells required to leave this many duds. I doubt they even fired that many into urban areas anyway. Israel has a professional military and professional militaries have restrictive measures against firing dual purpose improved conventional munitions into built up areas. Besides the humanitarian issues, it doesn't make sense to use the relatively small blast radius and explosive power of DPICM against fixed facilities. DPICM is good for area denial like a column of armor. If you are firing into an urban area at a building, HE makes more sense. Sounds like somebody is just trying to get free advertising for their business along with the benefit of propaganda.