Conffederate
Confederate

January 26, 2007

Nothing to See Here: Move Along

It's only the attempted trafficking of weapons-grade uranium:

A top official at a Russian state scientific institute confirmed Friday that Georgia had sent Russia a sample of uranium allegedly seized in a sting operation and that it was weapons-grade, Russian news agencies reported.

However, Igor Shkabura, deputy director of the Bochvar Inorganic Materials Institute, said the size of the sample provided by Georgia was too small to determine its origin, the RIA-Novosti and ITAR-Tass news agencies said.

At least this buy last year was a sting; other developments make me wonder of other attempts to sell weapons-grade uranium were successful:

The standoff between Iran and the West over its alleged clandestine nuclear programme looks set to increase with a report emerging on Wednesday in a British newspaper asserting that Tehran has been acquiring North Korean assistance in preparation for its first underground nuclear test, which European officials believe could take place as early as the end of the year.

According to The Daily Telegraph, Tehran and Pyongyang have expanded their traditional military ties to the nuclear level, with the reclusive Stalinist state sharing with Iranian nuclear scientists all data and information pertaining to the first-ever North Korean underground nuclear test conducted last October.

The news is set to exacerbate tensions between Tehran and western capitals. However, it appears that Iran was aware that the development would soon be made public. Just two days earlier, it barred 38 nuclear inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from operating on its territory, in a move that has already been slammed by France as evidence of Iranian discrimination against westerners from the United Nations nuclear watchdog’s inspection team.

This is of course merely speculation (that's what you guys pay me the big blogging bucks for, isn't it?), but it would appear to make quite a bit of sense.

If Western intelligence agencies are correct then Iran's own nuclear weapons program should not have yet been able to yet develop weapons-grade uranium from the cascade of centrifuges they currently have in their possession, why is Iran seeking help to prepare for a nuclear weapons test now, unless they either have, or anticipate having, a warhead ready to test in the near future?

If Iran was angling for foreign weapons-grade uranium, it might also be worthwhile to imply a far more nefarious purpose... plausible deniability. Nuclear weapons have signatures that can be traced back of their country of origin. Should a nuclear weapon be smuggled overland into the target area, a la the "neo-con" episode of 24 and then detonated, then it would be more difficult to conclusively prove who was behind the blast.

Were Tel Aviv or San Diego to suddenly disappear in a blinding flash and the uranium signature trace back to Georgia instead of Iran, then it is much less likely that the United States would have the immediate justification for a nuclear counterstrike.

This of course, is all idle speculation. Right?

Posted by Confederate Yankee at January 26, 2007 10:42 AM | TrackBack
Comments

You'd have to ask A.Q. Kahn to know of sure.

Posted by: Sniper One at January 26, 2007 10:56 AM