Surge Impact in Baghdad

A source in Iraq has forwarded me a copy of the DynCorp CIVPOL Intel Report from Feb 15-16, which shows the kind of impact that the "surge" in Baghdad is having on the various Sunni insurgency and Shia militia elements operating there.

DynCorp is a United States-based private military contractor which helps train police in both Iraq and Afghanistan, in addition to providing teams of military contractors in other theaters. According to Wikipedia, DynCorp also assisted recovery efforts in Louisiana and neighboring areas after Hurricane Katrina.

From the summary:

There was a total of 24 incidents reported during this period, which was the lowest total recorded in over a year. The low total can be linked not only to the new security plan but the torrential rain during the evening of the 15th which severely hampered the emplacement of IEDs. Several reports through open media sources state that insurgents continued to attempt to disrupt the new security plan with the use of IDF, IEDs and VBIEDs and they had little, if any, effect to slow the US-Iraqi program.

During the review period, US and Iraqi forces pushed deeper into Sunni militant strongholds in Baghdad, where cars rigged with explosives greeted their advance. In the Doura District two parked cars wired with explosives were triggered as a joint US-Iraqi patrol rolled past. The convoy was unharmed, but the blast killed at least four civilians and wounded 15. The explosions did little to disrupt the security sweep attempting to weaken militia groups' ability to fight US-allied forces (as well as each other). Most of the latest resistance has come from Sunni factions, which perceive their Saddam Hussein-era influence slipping away as the majority Shiites extend their political force and bolster ties to Iran. The Pentagon hopes its current campaign of arrests and arms seizures will convince average Iraqis that militiamen are losing ground.

A leader of the main Sunni bloc in parliament, Adnan al-Dulaimi, claimed the US-led sweeps have "started to attack" mostly Sunni areas. "It should concentrate on those who are perpetrating the violence and terrorist acts in all districts," he said; an apparent reference to the Shiite militia stronghold of Sadr City.

Throughout the capital, US and Iraqi soldiers set up dozens of roadway checkpoints and conducted top-to-bottom searches of vehicles and motorbikes. Generally the public’s sentiment is that they are willing to put up with delays so long as the security sweep shows some results after bombings that have killed hundreds of civilians this year.

The US military said that five suspected militants had been detained and numerous pistols, rifles, AK-47s and small arms munitions seized during searches of more than 3,000 structures since an operation began Tuesday in mainly Shiite northeastern Baghdad. It also said clearing operations were continuing in the predominantly Sunni northern neighborhood of Adhamiyah.

According to ministry officials, The number of Iraqi civilians killed in Baghdad's sectarian violence fell drastically during the review period, crediting the joint US-Iraqi security operation that began in force just days ago. Iraqi army Brig. Gen. Qassim Moussawi, a spokesman for the Baghdad commander, said only 10 bodies had been reported by the morgue in the capital, compared to an average of 40 to 50 per day.

Two charts in the report show the overall decreasing level of violence in Baghdad over the timeframes of 01-02 Feb through 15-16 Feb, and 09-10 Feb through 15-16 Feb respectively.

The abbreviations in the chart above are for improvised explosive devices (IEDs), rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), small arms fire (SAF), indirect fire (IDF - typically meaning mortars), and COMP which, quite frankly, has me stumped.

The report also mentions a tantalizing vehicle heist believed orchestrated by the Madhi Army, which may hint that another attack on coalition forces like the Karbala incident thought to have been carried out by Iranian Quds Force commandos that saw U.S. soldiers kidnapped and killed in a sophisticated raid, may be on the horizon:

DynCopr Armored vehicles stolen by Madhi Army-Bumper numbers A223 (Black Suburban) and A 60 (Green Chevy Suburban). Vehicles stolen while enroute from FOB Warhorse-May possibly be used in attck [sic] similar to Karbala or as VBIEDs.

Obviously, this report does not address the most recent attacks 30 miles north of Baghad, which occurred after this report was released, nor the smattering of attacks inside Baghad itself over the weekend.

Jules Crittenden notes how the media seems to be hoping and waiting for a Tet Offensive type attack:

This raises a question I’ve been wondering about. We’ve seen surge results, and we’ve seen the brief peace broken. No surprise here. Obviously it is to the benefit of the enemy to paint the surge as a failure, and well with the enemy’s capability to keep launching attacks. They can continue launching sporadic attacks as they are able, and the Surrender Camp will seize on them as signs of failure.

An attack like this on a base is an attention grabber, but it doesn’t sound like it involved a human wave assault, and for an alert and well-defended base, probably never threatened to amount to more than deadly harassment. Awaiting more details on that.

Is the enemy capable of anything like Tet-like offensive? I highly doubt it. No unified command and control; little cooperation among groups; nothing close to the necessary number of troops; and the U.S. is putting heavy pressure on all the leadership … al-Qaeda, Baathists, Mahdi Army, Iranians … everyone’s on the run. If anything, a campaign of coordinated frontal assaults would be a great opportunity to break the enemy … just as it did in Tet. The threat is political.

It is worth noting that the Tet Offensive Crittenden references was a crushing military defeat for the North Vietnamese and their Viet Cong allies, that saw the Viet Cong in particular decimated and operationally crippled, and that it was the American media helped turn the route (an estimated 45,000 VC and NVA were killed, versus just 4,324 KIA for allied forces, roughly 2,800 of them South Vietnamese) into a propaganda victory for the North Vietnamese.

Despite more attacks by Sunni and Shia terrorists and Congressional Democrats led by John "Okinawa" Murtha, there is every indication that the Baghdad "surge" is having an impact at reducing the overall level of violence in Iraq's capital.

Let's just hope that we can see marked improvements that even the press can't deny before Democrats can organize a successful surrender.