Conffederate
Confederate

May 08, 2007

Child Mortality Discrepancy?

Writing in the UK Independent, Andrew Buncombe states:

Two wars and a decade of sanctions have led to a huge rise in the mortality rate among young children in Iraq, leaving statistics that were once the envy of the Arab world now comparable with those of sub-Saharan Africa.

A new report shows that in the years since 1990, Iraq has seen its child mortality rate soar by 125 per cent, the highest increase of any country in the world. Its rate of deaths of children under five now matches that of Mauritania.

Jeff MacAskey, head of health for the Save the Children charity, which published the report, said: "Iraq, Botswana and Zimbabwe all have different reasons for making the least amount of progress on child mortality. Whether it's the impact of war, HIV/Aids or poverty the consequences are equally devastating. Yet other countries such as Malawi and Nepal have shown that despite conflict and poverty child mortality rates can be reversed."

Figures collated by the charity show that in 1990 Iraq's mortality rate for under-fives was 50 per 1,000 live births. In 2005 it was 125. While many other countries have higher rates - Angola, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, for instance, all have rates above 200 - the increase in Iraq is higher than elsewhere.

Is this an apples-to-oranges comparison?

According to figures from the CIA World Factbook there are roughly 864,588 live births in Iraq every year (about 31.44 for every 1,000 citizens). In 2003 there was an infant mortality rate in Iraq of 55.16 per 1,000 births, or about 47,690 infant deaths.

In 2006 that infant mortality rate has dropped to 48.64 deaths per 1,000 births. Or about 42,503 infant deaths/year. Or about 5,187 fewer dead infants every year than in 2003.

So is it safe to say that we’ve saved roughly (and these numbers are, admittedly, very rough) 15,000 infant lives since invading Iraq?

Note that the statistics cited by Buncombe are addressing the death rates of children under five between 1990-today, and Port's information isolates infant mortality from the time period of 2003-2006. Those differences noted, there seems to be a huge possible discrepancy between the rough number of 2005 under-five deaths reported by Save the Children through Buncombe (125) and the infant mortality rate of 55.16-48.64/1,000 determined by Port.

Both numbers could be correct, but for Save the Children's figures to be accurate based upon the CIA estimate of 864,588 live births, it would mean that 12.5% of Iraqi children under five, or 108,074 Iraqi children, died before the age of five in 2005 alone.

Does that figure seem plausible?

If it does, why has the professional media done such a miserable job of reporting the staggering losses of children in Iraq, which would seem to dwarf most total estimates of combat-related deaths?

If it isn't accurate, why hasn't Buncombe done a better job of fact-checking his sources?

Posted by Confederate Yankee at May 8, 2007 11:15 AM
Comments

"why has the professional media done such a miserable job of reporting the staggering losses of children in Iraq, which would seem to dwarf most total estimates of combat-related deaths?"

Because the primary interest of the corporate media is entrenching its own power and that of the class of its overlords. The corporate overlords want to suppress knowledge of the third world suffering caused by western corporations. The secondary interest is in maintaining their audience. But racist Americans don't really care if brown children die.

Posted by: Benj at May 8, 2007 01:35 PM

Am I the only one who wonders if the CIA World Factbook--published by the United States Government--might be just a bit biased when discussing civilian deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan?

That the source has a vested interest in making life in these two countries look as good as possible does not make these statistics wrong. Still, in the recent posts here and at Say Anything on this subject, the source material is giving only estimates for 2003-2006, and it makes me wonder what criteria they use for their estimates.

The UN, for example, has a very different number: 94 per 1000 for both 2000 and 2005 (http://unstats.un(dot)org/unsd/cdb/cdb_years_on_top.asp?srID=13620&Ct1ID=&crID=368&yrID=2000%2C2005). This may not be any more accurate, but it is certainly different, and it shows that there is value in looking at more than one source.

I am not saying that the CIA is lying--only suggesting the possibility that they may be using estimation or counting criteria that paint a rosier picture than the facts on the ground. Indeed, the UN numbers, though they don't suggest that the war has improved infant mortality in Iraq, at least indicate that it hasn't made it worse.

Main point: don't blindly accept data just because it conforms to your political preferences. Look for bias (which the UN certainly has plenty of). And look for other sources--if they differ wildly, something is wrong.

Posted by: R. Stanton Scott at May 8, 2007 02:33 PM

Here is another set of numbers on Iraqi infant mortality: http://www.unicef(dot)org/ infobycountry/iraq_statistics.html. (clear the space after the "org"). Still from the UN, and still suspect. But it may help see why Buncombe and the CIA book have different numbers: one is using under-5 mortality, and the other neonatal (under-1) mortality.

Sorry to harp on this, but it seems pretty counter-intuitive to think that infant mortality could drop in the middle of a war and subsequent insurgency. So I am automatically suspicious of any stats showing that this is what is happening.

Of course, I hope this is all true. Just doesn't really pass the smell test, in my opinion--even though I haven't been able to find anything definitive to rebut the claim.

Posted by: R. Stanton Scott at May 8, 2007 02:42 PM

That the source has a vested interest in making life in these two countries look as good as possible

So how is providing inaccurate data to US administrations somehow a vested interest and something the CIA would desire to do? Can you explain the precise mechanism of how this?

Posted by: Purple Avenger at May 8, 2007 03:32 PM

RSS, you miss the obvious point. We have medical units all over Iraq. How about considering access to more and improved medical help?

Posted by: CoRev at May 8, 2007 04:04 PM

Of course, there is the additional problem of taking any facts from Saddamite Iraq at face value. Are those figures true? Were the books cooked to make Iraq seem better than it was? Even if an outside agency was reporting, where did they get their figures from?

Keeping in mind CNN's post-invasion revelation that they let the Iraqi government censor their reports from Iraq. With tyranny's like Saddamite Iraq few figures and pronouncements have any value.

BTW, this is just a cautionary note to be careful with certain sources.

Posted by: Mikey NTH at May 8, 2007 04:20 PM

PA: I can think of at least three reasons to think that the data in the CIA World Fact Book might be inaccurate:

1. The publicly released data differs materially from that provided to US Administrations. We are not seeing what they are seeing.
2. The CIA is giving Administrations the same data it gives the public, but that data is flawed because collection or estimation methods miss crucial counts or inputs.
3. The CIA gives both the public and the Administrations incorrect data because individuals in the organization have some reason to want to do so. This could be low-level analysts trying to hide their incompetence or higher-level officers with a political agenda of some sort.

I am, again, not accusing them of deception. I think the most likely scenario is poor collection and estimation methods--driven not by incompetence or intent to fudge data, but by the difficulty of collecting information in the situation they face.

The data on Soviet economic and military power given to Administrations by the CIA during the Cold War was notoriously and demonstrably false (See, for example, Tom Gervasi's book "The Myth of Soviet Military Supremacy"). This false data lead to serious miscalculations about Soviet capabilities that made their eventual collapse a huge surprise to almost everyone. So I believe that a sceptical look at CIA data is warranted.

CoRev: I agree that if this data is true, access to improved health care from US military medical units would help to explain it. I have, however, seen no evidence that military units are treating Iraqi children on anything like a large scale, and would be surprised to find that our military hospitals there provide significant prenatal and obstetric care (this is not typically the type of doctor deployed to war zones--when our own female soldiers become pregnant, they are shipped out for care). If this order of battle is correct (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_orbat_toe.htm) I would estimate no more than about 8-10000 medical personnel deployed there, most of them tied up taking care of US casualties, as they should. I doubt this is enough to have the effect the data seem to show (likewise our much less robust presence in Afghanistan). Of course, others are working this as well, including contractors, but US efforts are probably not compensating for the generally deteriorating civilian health care system there.

Also, see here for an article suggesting that while US military hospitals are indeed treating Iraqi children, they are not properly equipped to handle pediatric care--Air Force officers lobbying for such capability: http://www.medicalnewstoday(dot)com/medicalnews.php?newsid=51183

Here is an article that details more generally the deteriorating health care situation in Iraq, including still another infant mortality rate number (125 per 1000, under 5 rate): http://www.globalresearch(dot)ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=DE%2020070406&articleId=5289.

And one more here: http://www.latimes(dot)com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-health11nov11,0,3477207.story?coll=la-home-headlines

Again, I would love to think that our presence there is doing some good. But I am not convinced by CIA data. And while treatment from US military facilities would indeed explain improvement if it is true, it looks like this is not enough to have the powerful effect shown by the data.

Remember Occam's Razor. I think the simplest explanation here is bad data.

Posted by: R. Stanton Scott at May 8, 2007 04:38 PM

There is much reason to doubt the alleged increase in infant mortality in later years. Unicef previouls stated that in excess of 500,000 died during the sanctions. Presumably the chidren would be dying an even greater rate if we had left the Sadaamists in power.

Posted by: davod at May 8, 2007 05:33 PM

Dear Confederate Yankee, That's exactly what it means - in 2005 alone, 122,000 Iraqi children died before reaching their fifth birthday. Please look at this link.
http://www.savethechildren.org/newsroom/2007/reducing-child-deaths-iraq-egypt.html

Save the Children took their figures from Unicef, which I reckon is probably a reasonable source. You say I shd "check" the sources but what genuine suggestions do you have to go about checking such figures?

As to Benj's claim that the main interest of the MSM is "entrenching its own power and that of the class of its overlords", if this was true why did MSM outlets such as The Independent report this story.

Best wishes,

Andrew

Posted by: AndrewBuncombe at May 9, 2007 10:54 AM