May 22, 2007
Also, The Sun Came Up Today
Allegations in today's Guardian that Iran may be supporting Sunni insurgents and al Qaeda in Iraq in anti-surge operations may come as a shock to some, but I can't imagine why:
Iran is secretly forging ties with al-Qaida elements and Sunni Arab militias in Iraq in preparation for a summer showdown with coalition forces intended to tip a wavering US Congress into voting for full military withdrawal, US officials say."Iran is fighting a proxy war in Iraq and it's a very dangerous course for them to be following. They are already committing daily acts of war against US and British forces," a senior US official in Baghdad warned. "They [Iran] are behind a lot of high-profile attacks meant to undermine US will and British will, such as the rocket attacks on Basra palace and the Green Zone [in Baghdad]. The attacks are directed by the Revolutionary Guard who are connected right to the top [of the Iranian government]."
The official said US commanders were bracing for a nationwide, Iranian-orchestrated summer offensive, linking al-Qaida and Sunni insurgents to Tehran's Shia militia allies, that Iran hoped would trigger a political mutiny in Washington and a US retreat. "We expect that al-Qaida and Iran will both attempt to increase the propaganda and increase the violence prior to Petraeus's report in September [when the US commander General David Petraeus will report to Congress on President George Bush's controversial, six-month security "surge" of 30,000 troop reinforcements]," the official said.
"Certainly it [the violence] is going to pick up from their side. There is significant latent capability in Iraq, especially Iranian-sponsored capability. They can turn it up whenever they want. You can see that from the pre-positioning that's been going on and the huge stockpiles of Iranian weapons that we've turned up in the last couple of months. The relationships between Iran and groups like al-Qaida are very fluid," the official said.
Iran is not "secretly forging ties" with al Qaeda; they've had them all along, possibly as far back as the 1996 Khobar Towers attack. al Qaeda operatives, including the 9/11 plotters have long used Iran as a gateway to Afghanistan, and al Qaeda operatives have lived in Iran since the fall of the Taliban.
That Iran would use "their" al Qaeda to hook up with al Qaeda operatives and other Sunni insurgents in Iraq to pursue their shared goal of forcing the United States out of Iraq is not only unsurprising, it is tediously predictable.
Firstly, the al Qaeda "ties" with Iran are being as implausibly played up as they were with Saddam's Iraq. Of course the Iranians are holding al Qaeda members. They hope to trade them for the MEK that we are holding in Iraq and have been for some time. The Khobar Towers connection is pure speculation. Quoth your provided article, "Al Qaeda, the commission determined, may even have played a 'yet unknown role' in aiding Hezbollah militants in the 1996 bombing of the Khobar Towers. . ." Hmm, may even have played a yet unknown role, eh? Convincing. Let us not forget that Tehran fed us intelligence during the overthrow of the Taleban. There was no love lost on that border.
To the instant case, it is possible that the Iranians are backing the Sunnis, but it would a dangerous game for them. If this speculation is correct and the goal is to force us out of Iraq, they will, if successful, have to deal with the Sunni militants themselves afterward. They are, after all, the blood enemies of Tehran's own Shi'ite allies in Iraq. That seems like it would produce way too much blowback for the Iranians to accept. This risk may be outweighed by the Iranians' desire to bleed us dry faster.
On the other hand, blaming Iran for everything has become a hobby in both Iraq and Washington and it's similarly possible that this is just more calculated disinformation.
Posted by: Shochu John at May 22, 2007 02:24 PMColor me shocked. Shocked! I linked.
Posted by: Bill Faith at May 22, 2007 02:25 PMsj:
Another of those who feels the Iranians wouldn't play with AlQaeda because they are Sunni. The iranians are talking directly with the Gulf States. Why wouldn't they be working with Al Qaeda?
Posted by: davod at May 22, 2007 02:32 PMDavod,
It's not that Iran won't work with Sunnis, it's the Iran is not likely to get along with the hardline Salafis (read al Qaeda types) who think that Shi'ia are not really Muslims. These are the "takfiris" (excommuncators) that you'll regularly hear Muqtada railing against.
It's difficult to form even a short term relationship of convenience with people who want you dead, and the Iranians are unlikely to find many people they can work with on the Iraqi Sunni side once they elimiate the Salafis and the Ba'athists. This is doubly so considering that any aid given to these people would likely be used against Iran's allies in Iraq (the Shi'ite parties). Again, it is possible that Iran might back such people so they keep fighting the U.S., but, especially with an American withdrawal looking more likely, it is a very risky proposition for them. No doubt their plan for the aftermath of a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq is Iran-backed Shi'ite parties rolling over the Sunnis and getting rid of the Salafis and Ba'athists once and for all with good old-fashioned genocide.
Posted by: Shochu John at May 22, 2007 03:04 PMIt's obviously ridiculous to think that Shi'ites would ever ally themselves with Sunnis. It's as absurd as say, Hitler allying with Stalin.
Posted by: Gary Rosen at May 23, 2007 02:22 AMYou will of course dismiss it because the author is Seymour Hersch, but I would love to hear an intelligent response:
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/03/05/070305fa_fact_hersh
"To undermine Iran, which is predominantly Shiite, the Bush Administration has decided, in effect, to reconfigure its priorities in the Middle East. In Lebanon, the Administration has coöperated with Saudi Arabia’s government, which is Sunni, in clandestine operations that are intended to weaken Hezbollah, the Shiite organization that is backed by Iran. The U.S. has also taken part in clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria. A by-product of these activities has been the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are hostile to America and sympathetic to Al Qaeda."
Posted by: Random Guy at May 23, 2007 02:33 AMTime for "Chicago Rules" when dealing with Iranian operatives.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at May 23, 2007 07:38 PMSo? What is the US going to do about it? Nothing! If we do anything more than bomb them we would have to withdraw troops from Iraq in which those on the right would view as a defeat.
Posted by: JW NC at May 23, 2007 08:53 PM
