June 21, 2007
Another 48 Hours
Michael Yon has a new post up, Operation Arrowhead Ripper: Day One. The military is allowing him full access to the battlefield and to the TOC headquarters. Civilian casualties are occurring, as the terrorists are using civilians as human shields when they engage our forces. The number of civilian casualties is as yet unknown.
Yon notes that only Michael Gordon of the NY Times is with him, making them the only two members of the media in the battle. CNN, TIME, Reuters, etc are apparently working their way to the battlefield now, making me wonder just who and how they're getting their stories to date.
I'm not going to steal all of Mike's thunder; go to his site to catch up on the rest of his account, and remember he is reader supported.
I will say this: I've been reading him since his embed with the "Deuce-Four" Stryker Brigade and have been corresponding regularly with him for most of a year, and I've rarely seen him so confident of an on-going operation. If he's correct—and he's rarely wrong, even when being right is unpopular—then al Qaeda in Baquba is living on borrowed time.
According to a press release from MNF-I PAO yesterday, "41 insurgents have been killed, five weapons caches have been discovered, 25 improvised explosive devices have been destroyed and five booby-trapped houses have been discovered and destroyed."
Other operations are underway as part of an overall operation called Phantom Thunder, but some are not getting as much media attention as Arrowhead Ripper is beginning to attract, so you may not be aware of them.
Operation Commando Eagle has been launched as joint U.S Army-Iraqi Army air-ground assault targeting al Qaeda cells southwest of Baghdad. Twenty-nine suspects have been detained, and multiple weapons caches were reported captured.
According to the MNF-I PAO release:
Troops of the 2nd Battalion, 14th Infantry Regiment, 2nd BCT, detained three men when their truck was found to contain documents requesting rockets as well as a spool of copper wire, commonly used to build improvised explosive devices.
I'm going to try to track down who that document was requesting rockets from, as while it could be nothing conclusive, it could be quite interesting if a source of the rockets could be identified.
Southeast of Baghdad, Operation Marne Torch is joint U.S. Army-Iraqi Army operation clearing the Arab Jabour area. More than sixty suspects have been detained, and 17 boats used to ferry explosives across the Tigris River have been destroyed, as have 17 weapons caches.
No Agenda Here
It in the past 48 hours, more than 40 al Qaeda terrorists (including a Libyan) have been killed, more than 100 have been captured in these and other on-going operations, and tons of munitions have been captured or destroyed in weapons caches.
What does CNN focus on? You already know the answer:
Fourteen U.S. troops have been killed in attacks over the past two days in Iraq -- 12 soldiers and two Marines -- according to the U.S. military.In the deadliest attack, a roadside bomb struck a military vehicle on Thursday in northeastern Baghdad, killing five U.S. soldiers, three Iraqi civilians and an Iraqi interpreter.
A U.S. soldier and two civilians were wounded.
Also Thursday, a rocket-propelled grenade struck a U.S. military vehicle in northern Baghdad, killing a soldier and wounding three others.
On Wednesday, a roadside bomb killed two U.S. Task Force Marne troops and wounded four others southwest of Baghdad.
A similar attack in western Baghdad on Wednesday killed four U.S. soldiers and wounded a fifth.
In addition, two Marines were killed in combat operations in Iraq's Anbar province on Wednesday.
There was zero--ZERO mention of the successes of the operations above mentioned by CNN. If you read this, their featured story on the war for today, you'd be left to understand that American and Iraqi forces, as well as Iraqi civilians, are suffering significant casualties, and al Qaeda terrorists, Sunni insurgents, and Shia militiamen got away with barely a scratch for the carnage they created. The CNN account reported a grand total of one dead terrorist, and he was a suicide bomber.
Propaganda is as much about what you chose not to print, as much as it is about the angle from which you pursue what do decide to print. Not that many years ago, CNN took a vow of silence not to report the torture being committed by Saddam Hussein's brutal regime in order to maintain a Baghdad office.
I'm beginning to wonder exactly what CNN gains now by refusing to tell all of the truth of this current Iraqi war.
Nah. Couldn't be.
Still doing counter insurgency the kinetic way I see.
As I have said everytime one of these major operations starts, check back with the cleared areas in 6 months. If they are better than they were two weeks ago then you've had a success. Generally speaking they have turned out to be worse by this measure.
It all runs on the same old logic. "If we win enough tactical victories, we will make up for the glaring hole where our strategy is supposed to be"
Standard form is now to declaim how very different this operation is to all the other ones, to list body counts, to enphesise how brave and superior coalition forces are and to remind us all of how very evil the enemy are. To save time;
1) Yes, now instead of warning the population and giving the insurgents time to get out, the army is attcking with little warning in densely packed civilian areas. Well, you swap insurgents getting away for increased radicalisation of the population by civilian deaths. Trust me, they aren't going to be blamed on Al-Q.
2) In insurgent vs conventional force war, 10-1 is the standard kill ratio.
3) Yes, they are very brave and very competent.
4) Yes, they are very evil and worthy of being killed.
Like I said, check back in 6 months. Things will be worse than they were two weeks ago in the swept areas.
Posted by: Rafar at June 21, 2007 10:54 AM" Things will be worse than they were two weeks ago in the swept areas."
At least thats what your hoping.
Right? ;)
(BTW: the evidence of late is that the sunnis are blaming civilian deaths on AQ, NOT the coalition- and that many of our recent successes are due to locals turning on AQ and providing quality intel. But you must have missed that in your uhhh.....selective reading.
Post a link to this piece at my forums. Good info CY! Thanks!
Posted by: LisaV (aka "Talismen" - Lady Crusader against jihad) at June 21, 2007 11:36 AMEDIT: Make that: "I postED a link to this piece at my forums...."
Sorry.... :-)
Posted by: LisaV (aka "Talismen" - Lady Crusader against jihad) at June 21, 2007 11:40 AMRafar, to the best of my knowledge, counterinsurgency is always kenetic, at least to certain degree. If you know of significant armed insurgencies with external support that have been defeated in the complete absense of the legitimate government re-establishing a monopoly of force, I'd love to be further educated on the subject.
I'm not sure that your larger theory, that every place we've tried this has reverted to a worse-than-before situation. Indeed, Fallujah, while still problematic in areas, is far more quiet than it once was, as, indeed, is most of al Anbar province.
Perhaps previous operations have made claims to being different and new in some way, but the current operations are, in my opinion, radically different because of the extensive involvement in the current operation in Baquba of civilians and even insurgents:
A lieutenant colonel named Bruce Antonia told Odierno about preparing to attack the Buhritz neighborhood a few nights earlier when he was approached by local Sunni inusurgents—members, they said, of the 1920 Revolutionary Brigades—who were streaming out of the neighborhood. "They said they'd been fighting al-Qaeda but had run out of ammunition and asked us to supply them. We told them, 'Show us where AQ is and we'll fight them.'" The insurgents did and the neighborhood was cleared.A second lieutenant colonel named Avanulis Smiley picked up the story from there, "Sir, they've also showed us seven buried IED sites. They gave us specific information—description of the houses, gate color, tree trunks."
After the briefing I asked Colonel Antonia if he'd asked the Sunnis why they had turned against al-Qaeda. "They said it was religious stuff," he said. "AQI demanded that the women wear abayas, no smoking and they preached an extreme version of Islam in the mosque. They'd also spent the winter without food and fuel because of the violence al-Qaeda was causing. One guy said to me, 'We fought against you because you invaded our country and you're infidels. But you treat us with more dignity than al-Qaeda,' and he said they'd continue to work with us. I've been involved in many operations here and this is a first—usually everybody's shooting at us. This is the first time we've had any of them on our side." (In web postings, the 1920 Revolutionary Brigade has denied it is cooperating with the Americans.)
I think you'll agree with me, Rafar, that counterinsurgencies are won when common ground can be established, truces negotiated, differences minimized, and political accords eventually reached.
There will always be hardliners who refuse to negotiate, however, and in some instances, have no interest in peace at any cost, profiting more from the war itself. Both side hoping for peace eventually realize this, and eventually come to grips with the fact that those radicalized elements must be driven out or killed.
This has already occurred in al Anbar, where Sunni tribesmen from a hundred tribes hunt al Qaeda, and have forced it to flee or die fighting. It is beginning in Baghdad, where ten Sunni tribes formerly loyal to the insurgency have joined the Awakening. It began occuring in Diyala in recent months, and the apparent cooperation by the 1920s Revolutionary Brigades in Baquba simply seems to be a part of that trend.
Contrary to your claims, the locals are largely blaming al Qaeda for civilain deaths, again, something that has carried over from al Anbar. al Qaeda has killed, tortured and mutilated thousands of Iraqis in the name of their twisted vision of Islam. Often, they do so for what seems to be almost sport to them. Our soldiers do kill civilians, but unlike the terrorists, we do so only by accident.
You predict things will be worse in in six months in almost what passes for a hopeful tone. I hope I misinterpreted that.
Posted by: Confederate Yankee at June 21, 2007 01:12 PMOh, I almost forgot to mention, Rafar: al Qaeda appears as if they are about to be routed in Fallujah.
"At least thats what your hoping."
Yes, you are correct, I yearn for my Islamic overlords to release me from this hell of freedom and prosperity.
Yes, you are correct, I yearn for my Islamic overlords to release me from this hell of freedom and prosperity.
As someone writing from the dead geographic center of the British Isles, you may very well get your wish. And Rafar... stay away from Moddey Dhoo.
Posted by: Confederate Yankee at June 21, 2007 02:29 PM"You predict things will be worse in in six months in almost what passes for a hopeful tone. I hope I misinterpreted that."
Let's start with this. Of course it isn't a hopeful tone. It is a resigned tone. A despairing tone. One of deep and abiding sadness. I wish that Iraq could become the society it has the potential to be. One where secular values rule the roost. One where women are free. One where every Iraqi wakes up and feel about the same as I do. Comfortable, safe, secure, expecting in today no more tragedy than I experienced yesterday. Worrying about the car's sevice, about the school fete, about how my job will be in a year, all that stuff.
Is that clear enough to do away with this line of thinking or do I have to say it as a preface to anything that I say?
"If you know of significant armed insurgencies with external support that have been defeated in the complete absense of the legitimate government re-establishing a monopoly of force, I'd love to be further educated on the subject."
In all societies the government has to establish a monopoly on force to achieve stability.
My point was on the emphasis of kinetic vs passive forms of counter insurgeny. As William Lind would say, de-escalate or go with the Hama model. Half measures are never going to work. De-escalation is the only real option open to us, but we consistently fail to choose it. It may fail (it almost certainly will at this point) but we are never going to go for the full blown extermination route (and I am thankful for that) so it is the only chance.
"indeed, Fallujah, while still problematic in areas, is far more quiet than it once was, as, indeed, is most of al Anbar province."
Fallujah is a pile of Rubble surrounded by the dispossesed in tent cities. It is a symbol for all Iraqis of the evils of the American occupation. "Problematic in areas"? Ask your average Fallujahn in those tent cities whether life is better now, or two weeks before the American assualt. 2 Marines were killed there yesterday for goodness sake.
"Perhaps previous operations have made claims to being different and new in some way, but the current operations are, in my opinion, radically different because of the extensive involvement in the current operation in Baquba of civilians and even insurgents:"
This is my point. Killing Al-Quaeda was something that the Sunni tribes were always going to get around to the moment their usefullness against the Americans faded. If the US had pulled out Al-Q would have been slaughtered by these Sunni tribes and they would have whistled while they worked.
It doesn't mean that the Sunnis are going peaceful, or that they are going to stop attacking US forces, or that they are not going to continue to fight the government which they largely consider to be an Iranian proxy. And even if they did, we would still be largely fighting for the authority of an Iranian-friendly bunch of useless, corrupt religious sectarians with radically opposing views of what should happen to Iraq and no ability or inclination to actually compromise.
This is what I mean when I say "If we win enough tactical victories, we will make up for the glaring hole where our strategy is supposed to be"
"I think you'll agree with me, Rafar, that counterinsurgencies are won when common ground can be established, truces negotiated, differences minimized, and political accords eventually reached."
Absolutely. Don't get me wrong, what has been happening in Anbar is great. It is what we should have been doing for years. But then we have to blow it all in big kinetic operations and make ourselves the hated occupier again.
Anyway, the debate is pretty pointless as what I said can only be tested in 6 months. I hope that I am wrong, but I wouldn't lay a penny on it. In fact, I'll offer you $10 that in 6 months things are worse in the swept areas than they were two weeks ago. And I'll be happy to pay out, I promise you.
"As someone writing from the dead geographic center of the British Isles, you may very well get your wish. "
Not living here you wouldn't be able to appreciate how utterly laugable that sentiment is. I shan't bother to go into it, but honestly, that's just silly.
And I speak as one who lived in the center of Wembley for a year.
Posted by: Rafar at June 21, 2007 02:53 PM"And Rafar... stay away from Moddey Dhoo."
And what does that mean by the way?
Posted by: Rafar at June 21, 2007 02:56 PMScratch that. Google is your friend. A spectral dog on the Isle of Man? I'll be sure to look out for it...
*confused*
Posted by: Rafar at June 21, 2007 03:03 PMActually, CNN has been carrying stories on its website (see here, for example) regarding the killing and capture of AQ terrorists during the operation, the arrest of suspects in the Samarra shrine bombing last week, and the discovery of equipment and training materials, etc. There's also cockpit footage (provided by the US military) of air strikes and video of sniper-to-sniper fire.
Since you cited the CNN website coverage, that's what I've also cited. In comparison, how have the FOXNews and MSNBC websites been handling Operation Arrowhead Ripper?
The MSM is a disgrace. Thank god for the Bill Roggios of the internet.
Posted by: ME at June 21, 2007 11:15 PMI yearn for my Islamic overlords to release me from this hell of freedom and prosperity.
Stick around for another 25 years there. The demographics are on the Islamic overlords side. The smart ones are fleeing while its still possible to cash out their fortunes and get some value out of it.
The retards are staying and will learn a hard lesson.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at June 22, 2007 05:55 AM"The retards are staying and will learn a hard lesson."
Piffle. Utter paranoid piffle.
Posted by: Rafar at June 22, 2007 07:54 AM"Rafar"
you dont deserve the warning,,, but YES
your birth rate is DROPPING while the arab/muslim birth rate on your bonny shores is SKYROCKETING
sharia is wending its way into your SCHOOLS, GOVT &ETC like a long vile SNAKE penetraiting your every defense
blair made a stand and you TOSSED him!!! how good does it look to you???
Posted by: Karl at June 22, 2007 10:25 PMAhh, now that you put it into caps with many exclaimation points I am convinced.
I'd better bone up on my Koran.
"blair made a stand and you TOSSED him!!! how good does it look to you???"
A stand against what? The skyrocketing Muslim birthrate? I think that we should probably be sterilising Muslims in the UK, don't you agree? After all, they are all a bunch of murdering Sharia loving evildoers. Maybe we should try removing their kids and having them raised in good Christian families. Or we could just cut to the chase and go straight for the extermination route.
