Conffederate
Confederate

August 01, 2007

Poorly-Formed Ideas

Democrat Presidential candidate Barack Obama seems to have, as my father might put it, "engaged his mouth before putting his mind in gear."

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama said Wednesday that he would possibly send troops into Pakistan to hunt down terrorists, an attempt to show strength when his chief rival has described his foreign policy skills as naive.

The Illinois senator warned Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf that he must do more to shut down terrorist operations in his country and evict foreign fighters under an Obama presidency, or Pakistan will risk a U.S. troop invasion and losing hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. military aid.

"Let me make this clear," Obama said in a speech prepared for delivery at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. "There are terrorists holed up in those mountains who murdered 3,000 Americans. They are plotting to strike again. It was a terrible mistake to fail to act when we had a chance to take out an al-Qaida leadership meeting in 2005. If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won't act, we will."

CNN provides us with this:

According to excerpts from the speech released by his campaign, Obama, D-Illinois, will say: "When I am President, we will wage the war that has to be won, with a comprehensive strategy with five elements: getting out of Iraq and on the right battlefield in Afghanistan and Pakistan; developing the capabilities and partnerships we need to take out the terrorists and the world's most deadly weapons; engaging the world to dry up support for terror and extremism; restoring our values; and securing a more resilient homeland."


Let us presume for the sake of argument that Obama is elected President, and as Commander in Chief, feels he has no choice but to invade Pakistan.

In his mind, what constitutes an "invasion?"

Does Mr. Obama mean periodic cross-border air raids by UAVs, attack aircraft, and special forces soldiers when intelligence assets identify specific targets, or does he mean what most of us would take way from these articles, which is a larger, full-spectrum invasion by land, air, and perhaps even naval forces?

What part of Pakistan would he invade?

Would he invade only the Taliban-controlled tribal areas of North and South Warizistan where we have seen most of the terrorist-related activities, or would he advocate a wider invasion of the Islamic nuclear state?

If a President Obama felt that an invasion of Pakistan was warranted, would he take preemptive steps to dismantle or destroy the Pakistani nuclear arsenal to prevent these munitions from possibly being used against American forces? He seems to suggest this when he states "we need to take out the terrorists and the world's most deadly weapons."

Does he realize that if he take such a step he would be attacking official Pakistani military bases and likely kill Pakistani soldiers, airmen, and other personnel that are not terrorists, forcing Pakistan directly into war with the United States?

Should efforts to destroy the Pakistani nuclear arsenal fall short of success, what are his contingencies? How would he keep any surviving Pakistani nuclear weapons from being used against invading U.S. soldiers. Does Obama realize that he would be responsible no only for any U.S. military losses, but for thousands of more lives in the region affected by the blast and its residual fallout effects?

This stance also brings up other issues.

If he truly believes that risking an assault on a nuclear state to suppress terrorism if diplomacy doesn't work is a viable option, why doesn't he join Senator Leiberman in saying that we must use all of our resources, including military force, against Iran, an aspiring nuclear country with a clear track record of the state sponsorship of terrorism throughout the region? Put bluntly, how could his policies be said to have any consistency if he advocates invading one state (Pakistan) for allowing terrorism, while failing to address another state (Iran) for directly supporting it throughout the region?

And how does he square his stated approaches to Iran and Pakistan with his advocating a withdrawal from Iraq, where we are already engaged with Islamic extremists who wish to create precisely the same kind of state that he says he would invade?

For quite some time--and due in no small part to the apparent lack of other strong primary candidates--I'd been rather confident that the 2008 Democrat Presidential ticket would be some combination of Hillary and Obama.

This frankly daft mash-up of contradictory foreign policy positions seems to indicate that the freshman senator from Illinois simply isn't ready for higher office, and very well may give John Edwards a fighting chance of getting on the ticket... then again, maybe not.

Posted by Confederate Yankee at August 1, 2007 10:29 AM
Comments

Now that's a chickenhawk statement if I ever heard one!

Posted by: DirtCrashr at August 1, 2007 10:47 AM

Obama never used the word invade. He simply said he would have let the targeted operation go forward that Bush aborted.

Posted by: You Need to Read at August 1, 2007 10:47 AM

First, there is a world of difference between a targeted strike and an invasion. Second, you really are being uncreative and knee-jerk in your response. This is obviously an implicit attack on the Clintons, as the Clintons refused to take out Osama by missile when they had him in their crosshairs because Sandy Berger suspected they lacked proper authorization. Playing up the invasion spin just misses the point.

Posted by: Clintons flubbed too at August 1, 2007 10:57 AM

Obama would flee Iraq and invade Pakistan. What a fool. Americans should learn lessons from their military failures in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Posted by: Aamir Ali at August 1, 2007 11:30 AM

You Need To Read, I'm not one for fully trusting anything the AP reports, but, that aside, they do have something from Obama in quotes:

"... It was a terrible mistake to fail to act when we had a chance to take out an al-Qaida leadership meeting in 2005. If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won't act, we will."

Obama may have implied what you say he said, but he certainly didn't say what you assert he did. Now maybe you have a transcript; please provide it, then.

As for your assertion that Obama never used the word "invade", CY used the word "invasion" which AP also uses in a summary of a specific portion of his speech:

"The Illinois senator warned Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf that he must do more to shut down terrorist operations in his country and evict foreign fighters under an Obama presidency, or Pakistan will risk a U.S. troop invasion and losing hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. military aid."

You need to read again and again until you see it.

As I said, the AP is notorious for getting things wrong, so I did check Obama's Campaign website. Guess what? He didn't actually say what I excerpted from the AP story. Not even close.

So, CY is right in questioning Obama about this if the AP is right. AP might be still be right if it was in the excerpts that Obama provided to AP before the speech, and AP publishing it should be necessary. I'd suggest reading the actual transcript of his speech (or watching the video) but that doesn't guarantee that it is not in what was provided to AP, so again the AP should release the press release they received.

Posted by: Dusty at August 1, 2007 11:42 AM

Its pretty clear to me AP is trying to tank Obama...which is unnecessary actually, since he's fully capable of tanking himself without their "help"

Posted by: Purple Avenger at August 1, 2007 12:22 PM

With the caveat that what Obama sent AP might still have been reported accurately by AP, I would tend to agree with you Purple. There hundreds of examples where AP could just report what was said by someone. They prefer, instead, to flavor it with how the reporter "heard" it.

That AP is pretty much a population that tends to "hear" things the same thing every time, all the time, I have great doubts that AP is accurate in reporting on anything at all that doesn't have quotes around it and still quite skeptical of any that do.

Posted by: Dusty at August 1, 2007 01:15 PM

More grist for the mill:

In a strikingly bold speech about terrorism scheduled for this morning, Democratic presidential candidate Illinois Sen. Barack Obama will call not only for a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, but a redeployment of troops into Afghanistan and even Pakistan — with or without the permission of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf.

The last I checked, the redeployment of troops to a foreign nation, without the blessing of that nation's government, is an invasion.

Reuters, NDTV (India), Guardian (U.K) and other outlets around the globe also recognize this basic bit of fact, that when you send your soldiers into another nation uninvited, it is an invasion.

Quite frankly, whether he used the word invasion is irrelevant.

He either meant he would invade--as the world's media seems to have interpreted his if they "...won't act, we will" comment--or he's incompetent in discussing foreign policy, perhaps proving Hillary correct (and yes, it pains me to utter that phrase).

Posted by: Confederate Yankee at August 1, 2007 02:31 PM

"The last I checked, the redeployment of troops to a foreign nation, without the blessing of that nation's government, is an invasion."

LOL. So true.

Posted by: Dusty at August 1, 2007 03:40 PM

Of course, if we bombed the 2005 "leadership meeting" (like we did in 2006, with poor results) and killed a bunch of civilians w/no leadership, Obama would be complaining about how we are creating more terrorists and we need diplomacy and a smarter war on terror and bla bla lie bla lie fraud bla

Posted by: TMF at August 1, 2007 04:42 PM

Since he was a supporter of the Webb Amendment which would require all those troops being pulled out of Iraq to stay home for an extended period of time I think it is a fair question to ask where he would get the forces for the invasion.

Posted by: Merv Benson at August 1, 2007 04:45 PM

Since when has any recent conservative been so concerned about technically invading a foreign country with a real plan?

Posted by: John Bryan at August 1, 2007 08:00 PM

Obama desperately needs to look at a topographical map of Afghanistan. He's sounding like a fool. All those armor units we have in Iraq are just targets in Afghanistan.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at August 1, 2007 09:00 PM

This is good news for all the 'hawks' on the left that keep on saying we're fighting the wrong war in Iraq. I guess they will all enlist after Obama gets elected, pulls the troops out of Iraq and puts them all in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Unless, of course, they are chicken.

Posted by: BohicaTwentyTwo at August 2, 2007 02:04 AM

Hmmm.

@ Jon Bryan

"Since when has any recent conservative been so concerned about technically invading a foreign country with a real plan?"

That was a **real plan**?

Let's review it shall we?

1. If good intel on presence of AQ leaders
2. Then send in troops.

That's a **real plan**?

I'd suggest that perhaps, just perhaps, your personal threshold for the phrase "real plan" needs to be raised just a tad.

Posted by: memomachine at August 2, 2007 09:36 AM

Hmmmm.

@

"Obama desperately needs to look at a topographical map of Afghanistan."

In more ways than one.

Afghanistan is completely landlocked and supplying forces there is a serious issue. And that's considering that the number of forces involved is much smaller than in Iraq.

From Beans to Bullets, Joint Forces
Command Keeps Supplies Moving

The problem with the use of troops in Afghanistan has always been a logistical one. Which is why we used small units of Special Forces combined with local warlords and rebels to overthrow the Taliban. People like to scream about Tora Bora but the reality is that deploying 20,000 American soldiers into the highland mountain regions of Afghanistan would entail tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, of tons of supplies. And all of which would have to have been transported and delivered entirely by air transport because in many cases there aren't any roads. And this same dynamic will make operations very difficult in the western part of Pakistan. And that's assuming the Paks won't mind our incursions.

The biggest strength of the modern American military has been it's training, morale and firepower, with an accent on the firepower. But that firepower comes at a significant cost in logistics because it requires enormous amounts of munitions and ammunition all of which will require transportation. And Afghanistan, particularly eastern Afghanistan/western Pakistan, is literally the ass-end of the world where transporting even so much as a candy bar is a time-consuming, expensive and laborious process.

Perhaps Obama could get away with specifically targeted raids by Special Forces, which quite frankly is probably happening now, but any significant number of troops inserted into western Pakistan is going to entail a huge logistical load that will be very vulnerable.

I think the last thing anybody wants is an American version of Paulus's 6th Army at Stalingrad or the French at Dien Bien Phu.

Posted by: memomachine at August 2, 2007 09:54 AM

Memomachine:

The other funny thing is where the logistical chain that supplies the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan passes through.

Given the declining relations with Russia (undoubtedly Bush's fault), that makes the 'stans a lot less reliable. I'd guess that we're not running supplies through Iran anytime soon.

So, who has transport connections into Afghanistan?

Any bets on how safe they'll be, once airstrikes, SOF and cruise missiles are going off all over the country?

And if you're outta logistics, you're outta Schlitz.

Brilliant!

Posted by: Lurking Observer at August 2, 2007 11:23 AM

Obamas a dill hole.

Pull out of Iraq and hand the place over to Al Qaida, genius. Pull out and give the Baathists a chance to regain control and atart making WMD again, genius. Pull out of Iraq and give nuclear armed, pro terrorist, anti American armed Iran a chance to take over, genius.

The sharp tools of the left seem to think that peasants in the mountains of South Afghanistan are the only targets in the GWOT when it was Saudi Sunnis who learned to fly planes in the US who did 9/11.

Posted by: ME at August 2, 2007 11:28 AM

Hmmmm.

@ Lurking Observer

*shrug* logistics has always been the Achilles Heel of military operations in that area. If it were easy then those warlords would be so much buzzard bait long ago.

The biggest problem is providing rear-echelon security for the logistical troops. In Iraq the logistical trains are generally kept as short as possible. But in major offensive operations in eastern Afghanistan those chains are going to be pretty long and routed through some desolate terrain. Perfect for raiders.

It's really how the Afghans/Pushtuns have beaten armies in the past. Allow enemy forces to penetrate deeply into the mountainous terrain so the supply chain lengthens to the breaking point and then break that chain. After that they basically wait until the now defensive enemy runs out of ammunition and then they go in for the kill.

Could we do it? Yeah. But it would be extremely ugly, very expensive and is as close to bear-baiting as such things come. Frankly if you're going to do it then you might as well ally with India and then go all out and conquer Pakistan completely.

Don't get me wrong I'm not talking about American invading and conquering Pakistan, I'd leave that to the Army of India. But if you're going to piss off a nuclear power, particularly a nuclear Islamic power, then you aren't going to get any brownie points for going only half-way.

Posted by: memomachine at August 2, 2007 02:38 PM

Senator Obama’s voting record on military issues can be found at: http://votesmart.org/voting_category.php?can_id=9490&type=category&category=47&go.x=7&go.y=8

Senator Obama’s ratings from special interest groups on military issues can be found at: http://votesmart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=9490

Project Vote Smart produces the National Political Awareness Test (NPAT), which essentially asks each candidate “Are you willing to tell citizens your positions on the issues you will most likely face on their behalf?” You can find Senator Obama’s responses to the NPAT at: http://votesmart.org/npat.php?can_id=9490

For more information on Senator Obama’s position on military issues please visit http://www.vote-smart.org or call our hotline at 1-888-VOTE-SMART.

Posted by: Project Vote Smart at August 2, 2007 04:56 PM

I've been a big advocate of expanding our heavy airlift capacity for quite a while. It has been inadequate for quite a while now. Its also a dual use capability that can be shifted to civilian relief purposes when its not needed.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at August 2, 2007 07:10 PM

"I've been a big advocate of expanding our heavy airlift capacity for quite a while."

C-17s are great aircrafts, but there's a reason we're still flying the C-5. If you're flying from Langley AFB to Kuwait via Rota, Spain, I highly recommend flying on plane with a rear facing passenger deck that's older than 95% of the people flying in it. Of course, you truly will not appreciate the rear facing seats unless the auto pilot deciedes to cut out somewhere over the Atlantic, like ours did. Sigh, good times.

Posted by: BohicaTwentyTwo at August 2, 2007 10:00 PM

I'm not even thinking C5/C17 -- I'm thinking Bill Northrup had the right answer 70 years ago. The structural and aerodynamic advantages of the flying wing are compelling for heavy lift application.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at August 3, 2007 11:31 PM

Sadly Obama has no mind to engage.

Posted by: David at August 5, 2007 04:25 AM