Aww, come on, CY, you don't expect the leftymedia to let a few inconvenient facts get in the way of a good anti-Bush, anti-war, anti-military story, do ya?

Considering the way the cops and deputies shoot in LA, they need all the practice ammo they can find...

But they support the troops right?

I don't get it. I thought the lefties wanted the police to be disarmed.

CY is turning into the number one enemy of news fabricators.

Something else doesn't make sense about that story.

Most LEO's carry either 9mm or 10mm sidearms, right? And last I heard, the typical long arm for patrol cars was a shotgun. Only the SWAT types carry the M16 lookalikes that shoot 5.56mm NATO.

But American troops in combat carry M16 and related weapons, which shoot only the 5.56mm.

So how the hell can combat expenditure of 5.56mm be causing shortages in other calibers?

Excellent analysis, CY, you nailed it.

my read is that demand jumped 40% *last year* and ATK was able to increase production by 30%.

Dan's analysis using the North LA bank robbery as a starting point does little to account for a sudden 40% spike five years after 9/11.

Also, the problem is solvable by a five million dollar capital investment, for which funding has been secured.

My hunch is that those departments which are facing a shortage of ammunition have budget issues which prevent the departments from simply paying more for the existing ammo.

There is a 10% shortfall in ammunition supply, whether that alone can account for sudden, dramatic decline of police capability remains to be proven.

Good work.
I'm conflicted on the subject, though.

I don't want the police to have fully automatic weapons (indiscriminate firing) and be heavy militarized (conspiracy theories).

But I want them to be able to respond to a terrorist attack if AQ decides to release small hit squads in cities.

And - of course - the media run with what they see. Kinda like the drunk looking for his keys under the street-light...

Traditionally the patrol car long arm was the short-barrelled shotgun. But departments are trending away from that, in favor of M4-style assault rifles.

In addition, SWAT-type units are more and more prevalent, as the federal government provides an insane amount of money for standing up and arming these teams, even in departments that have no need for them.

Police are rapidly becoming (and in some cities already are) the standing army our Founding Fathers were afraid of.

Actually, the real reason our cops don't have enough guns and ammo---they're all being smuggled to Mexico!

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2007-01-18-mexico-arms_x.htm

Love Libby's use of "ammo". When you're a tough, smart, tough, and strong liberal, not only are you are troop-friendly (bring the baby-killers home now) but you know the jargon.

Cops. Ammo. City streets. Don RayBans, scowl, and cue terse, driving music.

Yep, smart, tough, strong and smart. The liberals.

Most LEO's carry either 9mm or 10mm sidearms, right?

Varies by department. 9mm and .40 S&W are the most popular calibers in the LE market, however, there are some departments that use .45 ACP.

And last I heard, the typical long arm for patrol cars was a shotgun. Only the SWAT types carry the M16 lookalikes that shoot 5.56mm NATO.

Again, varies by department. After the Hollywood bank robbery, the cops around here seem to have moved the shotguns to the trunk and have M4s in the passenger compartment- and I'm taking about regular patrol cops, not SWAT. Those guys have MP5s and the like.

But American troops in combat carry M16 and related weapons, which shoot only the 5.56mm.

Not exactly. 5.56 NATO is the standard issue, but a lot of other calibers are used, as well. 308 cal/7.62 NATO is used in many (generally full-auto) support weapons, and it's also one of the other very popular cartridges for both the LE and civilian markets.

So how the hell can combat expenditure of 5.56mm be causing shortages in other calibers?

Well, the thing is, I have yet to find a gunshop that didn't have *some* 5.56 or 7.62 to buy... usually premium-grade hunting or competition ammo. What they don't have for sale are the 1000-round bulk cases of FMJ that people like to use for training or recreation.

I'm conflicted on the subject, though.
I don't want the police to have fully automatic weapons (indiscriminate firing) and be heavy militarized (conspiracy theories).
But I want them to be able to respond to a terrorist attack if AQ decides to release small hit squads in cities.

Do the police need automatic weapons to respond to a terrorist attack. Or would the semi-automatic weapons that the rest of us have to use do the job?

The militarization of the police is hardly a conspiracy theory. It is such a problem that sometimes I'm more worried about the threat they pose then some Allah-worshipping pyjama-clad monkey-bar expert.

The military load on the 9mm and .223 is usually in API, incendiary and ball. While LEO can use ball they will usually tend toward a hollow point type round that is forbidden to military applications by one of the Geneva Conventions. The hollow tip round also add the benefit of reduced of rounds passing through one target and hitting another.

The militarization of the police is hardly a conspiracy theory

No joke there. I noticed that the 'upswing' of the military/police also goes within the timeframe (1994) of the Government asking a selection of active US Military whether or not they were willing to suppress the citizenry of the US on the orders of Washington. The overwhelming response was negative, and those in charge realized that the active military would NOT be willing to take part in the suppression of the People of the United States.

By increasing the funds available to local law enforcement, and allowing them to "upgrade" their firepower and vehicles from surplus stocks from the US Militaery, the stage has been set for a real life "police state" circa Orwells "1984" or even Terry Gilliams "Brazil"

I wonder if the "uptick" in demand might have something to do with the various attempts by the "ban guns" crowd to shift to ammunition? Things like the OSHA stunt and statements by some of the Sara Brady types as well as increased visibility of atrocities like the DC ban may be making more 'private citizens' inclined to stockpile ammo.

Good work. I'll definitely be bookmarking this site.

That's impressive reporting, CY. You not only provide greater depth of analysis than their article, you also point out exactly where they go wrong, in asking police departments rather than manufacturers for comment. Their reporters were clearly in over their head. I also have to wonder who served this story to them on a platter.

And remember, Aug. 28 is National Buy Ammo day. Read more over at 'War On Guns'.

Regarding use of 9mm and .45 hurting .40 cal, Yes it does. Ammunition lines are limited. each line gets switched back and forth between several calibers, just like a reloader at home does. Therefore high demand for 9mm means less .40 will be produced. try getting rare cartridges. some of those are near impossible to find and also high priced due to the time required to change over a line being factored into cost. The hours taken in reset are spread accross a few thousand rounds, vs a million rounds. Some lines are dedicated to one round only, but when demand for that round increases, another line is switched to that caliber.
Regarding cops carrying stuff other then shotguns, after 1997, I had cops borrowing weapons from me to supplement their dept issue. The prospect scared a lot of cops bad! Departments were slow to react due to budget constraints, and a lot of cops are low paid. (I got out of law enforcement because I could make more then double what a highway patrol officer was getting working in industry.) I had bucks, I like to shoot, so I spent my dough on some nice black guns. I used to go to the range with my deputy buddies, and they all knew what I had in my closet. Less then a week after the North Hollywood shoot out, one close friend asked to borrow my M-16. Within two weeks, every semi auto I had was on loan. I even loaned out my .44 mag and .357 to cops whose dept issue were old .38s.
As time went on, departments caught up, the officers budgeted for a good long gun, and the scare died down a little, and I got my stuff back.
After 9-11 The M-16 was back on patrol for about six months. during that time I added an M1A to my collection, and it got loaned out too.

Just wondering out loud with this, and offering no data at all to support it...

But I can't help but wonder if the increase in gasoline costs hasn't crept into the PD's pinched ammo budgets. I would imagine that a major cost of operating a PD is just keeping the cars running. Increase the cost of fuel, and a PD might find itself trimming elsewhere to keep paying the gas bill. Ergo: They might not keep so much training ammo around.

You see, in a leftist reporter's mind (but I'm being redundant, aren't I?), It's always about the Global Warming, isn't it?

Jeremy,
I have to ask: Just what liability would an Officer and/or Police Department incur by using a borrowed (and I'll presume "not-trained-on") firearm if they ever had to shoot someone with it?

"demand from China for copper and lead for their building boom [and for toy paint, and baby bibs, and pajamas"

...now THAT is funny!!!.

Trackbacked by The Thunder Run - Web Reconnaissance for 08/21/2007
A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day...so check back often.

The fact that the price of copper has quadrupled and the cost of lead has doubled over the last couple of years definitely has had a large effect on the matter. The war also has an effect. All the surplus ammo that showed up on the civilian market due to the end of the cold war has finally dried up as well. The worth of the dollar has decreased, so importing ammo is more expensive now. Cost of fuel increases freight costs which are not insignificant when dealing with something as heavy as ammo. Add in more demand by PD agencies for ammo, and well its not hard to understand why the price of 5.56 ball has more than doubled over the past year. It's pretty ugly right now for the recreational shooter, if you are buying ammo off the shelf for an outing. A day at the range a year ago might of cost $50. Now its more like $150.

From Slate on 8/15/07 and Bill Hobbs on 8/16/07:

An associate professor at the University of Oregon's School of Journalism and Communication, Scott R. Maier, conducted research into the accuracy of newsprint, and found that about 50% of 1,220 news stories contained errors. And only 23 of these (about 2%) ever printed a correction.

An associate professor at the University of Oregon's School of Journalism and Communication, Scott R. Maier, conducted research into the accuracy of newsprint, and found that about 50% of 1,220 news stories contained errors. And only 23 of these (about 2%) ever printed a correction.

Sorry for the double post, I don't know how that happened.

Just one more thing to throw into the mix:

Under the Clinton Administration, orders were made by the White House that all military Ammunition would be 'environmentally sound.' In other words "Green" as the research showed that throwing lead downrange might have some impact on the environment. The interesting thing is the Military changed the core of the 5.56mm round to a Tungsen/Tin composite.

See the Article:
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1571/is_19_16/ai_62349852

Whats REALLY fascinating is that the primary source of tungsten ore is the People's Republic of China, which "has an estimated 40% of the world's tungsten reserves." http://www.americanpolicy.org/more/greenamunition.htm

Interesting how Clinton handed the Chinese ANOTHER great deal huh?

How many rounds of rifle and machine gun ammunition does the United States military fire at the enemy on average each day in Iraq? A hundred rounds? A few hundred rounds? Whoopdee do. The United States military has for decades fired hundreds of times (thousands of times?) more rounds in training each day than the United States military in Iraq fires at the enemy each day on average in Iraq. Also, as far as ammunition for pistols, how many damn rounds of ammunition for pistols have been fired at the enemy in the last five years in Iraq? Ten rounds? Sorry, Associated (with terrorists) Press, but there aren't many service members in Iraq engaging the enemy with pistols. Sorry, AP but the United States military is not engaging even hundreds of enemy targets with rifles each day in Iraq. Evidently, the dingbat from the Associated (with terrorists) Press "thinks" that the United States military is engaging hundreds of thousands of enemy troops in sustained combat each day in Iraq. ROTFLMAO! This Associated (with terrorists) Press fantasy is an absolute joke written by some America hating, military hating dimwit.

good catch on the AP story, but good reporting would also find a third source, not allowing the manufacturer to spin to their needs. also, good reporting would give some clarification as to why there's been a 40% jump in police demand. were they under armed before 9/11. is it a paranoid over reaction? has crime risen that much? a good story leave one with answers, not questions.

What effect does demand from domestic suppliers have on the price of foreign ammo (eg. Sellier & Bellot, Wolf)?

I believe that it's driven the prices much higher on the import stuff, along with the current exchange rate. Some of my older military rifles are getting more than a little expensive to fire and most of it is nothing more than the old Soviet ammo supply beginning to dry up. Wolf, I believe is a perfect example of the Russians finding a way to profit from the cold war. We can buy SKS semi-autos for $189.00 and then they sell us the surplus ammo for a fortune!

Reload your own, it's not hard.

The original article isn't perfect, but it's no where near as incorrect as is being assumed.

1. Both ATK (who has the current contract to operate the US's sole miliary ammo plant, Lake City, and is the parent of Federal, Speer, and CCI, among others) and General Dynamics (owner of Winchester Ammo/Olin Chemical) are running their military lines at full speed, and are still unable to meet demand for rifle ammo. Practice ammo is being purchased from Israel (IMI) and South Korea, though it isn't used for combat due to political sensitivities.

2. The US is not the only country involved, and the US military is not the only military invovled. Just as the US military is consuming all available domestic military production, the same is true of several of the other countries involved in both theaters. Many of those countries normally supply the US civilian market with ammo, and that ammo hasn't been available for several years. And recently, the US has started to equip some Iraqi units with M16s/M4s instead of the AKs that are their standard issue. This consumes even more 5.56 ammo.

3. Many billions of rounds of post-Cold War foreign surplus ammunition was imported during the 90s and early 2000s, as a result of the global draw-down in forces following the implosion of the USSR. The last of that ammo started drying up around 2002-2003, further removing a large portion of the ammo that had been feeding the civilian market for over a decade.

4. It's absolutely true that 5.56 weapons have been adopted in droves for front-line police patrol units, especially post-9/11 when federal funding was made available. Certainly this has vastly increased the demand for 5.56, especially for training (unlike the military, the police expend very little ammo on duty).

5. Let's not forget about the vast increase in civilian demand, which took off around the time the original Assault Weapons Ban was passed in 1994. The ban brought military-pattern rifles to the attention of a lot of shooters, who suddenly rushed to buy one "while they still could" and found out how much fun they were. Interest in them exploded, and millions have been sold since then. Foreign ammo, both surplus and new-production, helped to keep up with this growing demand, but both are virtually unavailable today.

6. The UN Small Arms Non-Prolifieration Treaty has resulted in many nations refusing to sell ammo, new or surplus, on the civilian market.

7. Costs. Not only have raw materials prices gone up, but availability is down, resulting in supply delays. Energy costs are up, which, like most products, hits at every point along the production and distribution path. And more recently, the drop in the value of the dollar makes foreign imports much more expensive.

The bottom line is that there are many reasons for the shortage of ammo (and there IS absolutely a shortage; many of the big distributers have no 5.56 or 7.62 to sell for weeks at a time), but the War On Terror is directly or indirectly responsible for many of those reasons.

-Troy

[quote]What effect does demand from domestic suppliers have on the price of foreign ammo (eg. Sellier & Bellot, Wolf)?[/quote]

S&B has contracts with Winchester/Olin, and it sells to many of the countries that are involved in Iraq and Afghanistan. It also sells to other countries who have also begun increasing their ammo stocks due to the increased instability in Europe and the Middle East.

Wolf is a US company that imports ammo from the Russian ammo plants at Tula and Ulyanovsk as well as from Serbia (Prvi Partisan). Russia has been selling billions of rounds of ammo around the world, including large orders to Venezuela and to Iraq. Remember that both the military and the police in Iraq primarily use Romanian AKs supplied by the US, after confiscating and destroying tens of thousands of existing AKs from various source countries.

Prvi Partisan has a number of military contracts, and they, too, are unable to supply ammo to the US civilian market in the quantities that they anticipated only a couple of years ago.

While ammo isn't quite the global commodity that oil is, you still have the problem where increased demand in one sector affects the supply in others, especially given that there is so little surge capacity in modern manufacturing. And in any country, the military always gets its order filled first, with the police and civilian markets getting the leftovers.

-Troy

Yet another breakdown in the drive by media. The likes of the Boston Globe, Seattle Post Intelligencer, MSNBC, and ABC News among others can't even perform basic fact checking.

Unlike the AP and their newspaper and broadcast clients you folks at CY looked into this matter, contacting suppliers to find out the real story. The suppliers all stated that Military demand was having no direct impact on civilian ammunition supplies.

Your source says there has been a recent spike in demand, "...capacity is the main issue. As you might imagine, for a precision manufacturing business that faced many years of steady demand, it can be quite a challenge to suddenly meet double-digit growth in demand."

A steady business, sudden increase in demand, why? I suspect this may have something to do with federal, state, and local procurement timing. Any one whose ever seen the feds in action knows that August is traditionally the month they spend like crazy to exhaust their budgets prior to the September 30, year-end. I haven't confirmed this is true in this case, but it is likely a contributing factor.

Military ammo production capacity has been a persistent problem for several years now. Defense Industry News has covered this issue extensively going back as far as the summer of 2005.
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/pass-the-ammunition-army-taking-action-on-smallcal-shortages-0859/ I learned this through a simple google search of the term "ammunition shortage." Had the AP done de minimus fact checking they would have easily discovered this. In this instance, AP's agenda driven journalism led to a multi-level malfunction, using selective anecdotes from inapproopriate and unknowledgable sources, failing to corroborate their thesis with other knowledgable sources (the ammo makers), failure to conduct basic research on the specific question, that alters the entire context of the story, and failure to dig deeper to see if other factors like federal procurement policies may have played a roll. Obviously the AP has abandoned all pretense of objectivity. CY is calling on the AP to issue a correction or retraction, this is an appropriate remedy in this case. The number of defective stories and pictures being produced by the AP is very distressing. Current management needs to address these quality control problems immediately. Failing to do so will ultimately lead to a catastrophic disaster

AzLib,
No worry about liability. I trained alongside those officers, and everyone of them had shot and was familiar with the weapons I owned. Most of them were ex military or National Guard, and were very familiar with the M-16. Mine incidentally was a semiauto only without the full auto seer, and a block to prevent it being installed. They all knew what I had, and on range day brought ammo so they could shoot. Every one of us qualified with at least ten diffrent weapons every time we went.

good catch on the AP story, but good reporting would also find a third source, not allowing the manufacturer to spin to their needs. also, good reporting would give some clarification as to why there's been a 40% jump in police demand. were they under armed before 9/11. is it a paranoid over reaction? has crime risen that much? a good story leave one with answers, not questions.

"Good reporting" also uses capital letters. It's not hard, there's two buttons--one on either side of your keyboard--labeled "Shift." Many of them even helpfully have up-arrows!

And why do I suspect that your desired "third source" would be one that would spin it back to Bush and the eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeevil Wepubwicans and the war in Iraq?

Love Libby's use of "ammo". When you're a tough, smart, tough, and strong liberal, not only are you are troop-friendly (bring the baby-killers home now) but you know the jargon.

Cops. Ammo. City streets. Don RayBans, scowl, and cue terse, driving music.

This is the most idiotic nit I've seen picked in quite a while.

I had the honor of taking supper with an Army retention NCO who was just promoted to E-7. We discussed the current levels of training the military is doing. This NCO works with Infantry and ADA units and gave me a lot of insite into what our folks are doing now. The infantry here are going to the range once a month, so roughly 50 rounds per person. Support people go twice yearly. One thing that was also brought up was the demise of the Sunflower Army Ammunition Plant which sprawls accross south east Kansas. With the closing of SFAAP http://www.sfaap.net/sunflowermission.htm the army lost a major powder manufacturing source. Granted the facility was old and outdated, but they should have modernized rather then destroy it.

Did anyone interview the makers of Glock "square-backed" ammunition? Apparently those rounds (squares?) are in great demand in Iraq by the Iraqi Police.

[/sarc]

Current management needs to address these quality control problems immediately.

Current management IS the quality control problem. A fish rots from the head.

The real story here seems to be just what is fueling this ridiculous demand for ammo by our police.

Regarding the attributed statement that: "Since 9/11 we've seen a huge jump in demand from law enforcement. In the last fiscal year alone we saw demand from law enforcement jump 40%." Just what were the actual figures this is in regards to? Just how many rounds are we talking about that the police supposedly want?

Does anyone off hand know the total numbers of police officers in the US of A? What ratio of rounds desired to police officers is being discussed?

Since few cops ever fire their weapons in the line of duty in their entire career, this so called demand would have to relate to practice sessions, and there is a limit to the usefulness of that once you are familiar with your weapons.

As the conventional military is finally learning, keeping and building the peace is a different kettle of fish than combat. Cops are not military and their job is to keep the peace. That means building networks and contacts within the community - getting off your duff and walking around where appropriate - something that peace officers have always known, police officers have lost sight of, and with which SWAT teams have no conception.

If in fact a large part of the problem is just basic availability of copper, brass, and other materials used by center fired ammo then there is a very strong case being made for peace officers to go back to the trusty shotgun. Besides being a very good weapon in a fight - better than a M16 in house to house situations, it will tend to knock the bejesus out anyone even if they are wearing armor - shoot them in the head or legs and see what happens. The average cop's desire for an automatic assault weapon was a knee jerk reaction by people not very well schooled in the use of appropriate weaponry. Get hold of a 1911 or something similar, have the shotgun as backup. If that doesn't do it get under cover and wait for SWAT or hang it up and go home. Most times that isn't going to happen - my dad disarmed so many drunks and crazies without pulling his pistol that I couldn't keep score if I tried. He was a peace officer in the true sense of the word who had no interest in killing or even harming anyone - which isn't to say he couldn't.

Regarding the type of ammo being used by the military, Tom pointed out that the amount of pistol ammo fired in Iraq is about nil; he is correct. I have no idea how many rounds are fired on average over the course of a day in Iraq; however, I know when you get into action ammo tends to melt away. In addition, it is the automatic weapons which burn thru ammo, not so much the shoulder fired weapons. The SAWs are 5.56, the M60s are 7.62, then of course there are the .50 cal, and on the heavier vehicles there are 25 mm - not to mention the systems on the aircraft. In a fight a M60 can burn through more ammo than the rest of the unit's shoulder fired weapons combined.

Has the basic claim of the AP story even been verified? "Troops training for and fighting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are firing more than 1 billion bullets a year..." Even at a troop level of 160,000, which is high, that comes out to over 6,000 rounds per trooper. Granted automatic weapons on vehicles and aircraft can really inflate things but Tom is right, this seems really inflated, especially since our troops' fire discipline is pretty damn good. I certainly never fired anything remotely close to this. This figure looks more like the total ammo used by the military for everything world wide...

This is a good article and some of the comments have been very insightful - others have been a good laugh, jeremy.

Why a 40% jump in LEO demand in the last year? That is truly disturbing along multiple theories.

here is a very strong case being made for peace officers to go back to the trusty shotgun.

There's another good reason for using the good old shotgun.

The distinctive sound of it being cocked tends, many times, to instill a desire to cooperate with the officers.

It's not foolproof, some suspects are too stoopid for it to work on, but the same can be said of the M-16.

H. Short;

Any LEO, be he 'police' or 'peace' officer, who does NOT regularly practice with his sidearm, needs to get out of the patrol car, go in the office, remove his badge and weapon, and sit down at a desk and type. This also applies to she LEO's, because they have no business on the street if they are not TOTALLY QUALIFIED and PROFICIENT with that piece.
And proficiency does NOT come from once or twice a year shooting for qualification at the range. Proficiency comes from AT LEAST 2-3 times a month, at the range, developing muscle memory, so that if it ever happens that you DO need to draw and fire, it is automatic, your hand and arm know EXACTLY what they are doing, your eye automatically lines up with the sights, you establish perfect sight alignment with a VALID target, breathing is good, and you SQUEEZE, not PULL the trigger to discharge - all INSTINCTIVELY, so you still have the time to tell the perpetrator "HALT! POLICE! OR I WILL SHOOT!"

C-C-G;

When I bought my Mossberg 12 gauge, that was the EXACT reason for bringing it home; that lovely "snick-click-clack" sound that says, "Hey JACKASS, the next sound you hear will be your LAST! Get OUT!"
I damn well know when I went through the FLETC academy in Georgia, way back in '77, hearing that sound in the training chamber sure as Hell stopped ME cold!

Does anyone off hand know the total numbers of police officers in the US of A?

www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/lawenf.htm

"In 2004 there were more than 800,000 full-time sworn law enforcement officers in the United States"

When I hired on my Department practiced with handloaded ammunition, the work was done by trustees in our jail. Shortly after that someone important decided that this practice was too dangerous although no one had ever been injured.
Because I worked in a rural area I kept a lever action carbine in the trunk of the car, a .357 Magnum to complement my service revolver. With that I wad set for up to 150-200 yards.

I'm glad I'm retired, I think they'd have me toting a flame thrower in one pocket and a bazooka in the other now.

A big part of the current problem is the seized drug money and property. This can only be sppent on certain kinds of equipment, weapons and ammunition. So the departments get all these new whiz-bang guns and stuff and they need bazillions of rounds of ammo. I went to work with six in my revolver, two speedloaders full, seven rounds in the carbine, five shotguns shells and a bag with half a box or so of .357s and maybe a dozen extra shotgun shells. In my whole career I never worried about running out of ammo. I worked in a single car, in the country, I might have to wait ten minutes or more for backup.
Now the boys carry so much ammo that if they fall into three inches of water they drown.
Progress.