February 05, 2008
Obligatory Super Tuesday Predictions
Allahpundit has his up as does Scott Elliott of Election Projection, as no doubt does every other political blogger under the sun.
On the Democratic side, it doesn't seem like either Obama or Hillary will grab enough delegates to land a knockout punch. Advantage: Obama. This final blow to Hillary's seeming inevitability from earlier in the campaign means that it may be a true free-for-all after all of tonight's delegates are awarded. My prediction? No clear winner.
John McCain, despite being only slightly more conservative than Hillary, looks to pull decisively ahead in the race for the Republican nomination unless Mitt Romney stages some surprising comebacks... and frankly, I don't see that happening. McCain won't win enough delegates tonight to clinch the nomination, but he might pull enough that Romney (sorry, Hugh) and Huckabee concede the nomination in coming days. Advantage: Obama.
We're a long way from November, but if current trends continue this is going to get ugly for Republicans. For conservatives, with no candidates in the hunt at all, we've already lost.
... and of course what with the LameStreamMedia still intentionally ignoring Dr. Paul, (mind you the ONLY Republican candidate with money still in the bank so to speak) there's no chance in this currently rigged affair that the ONE person who has some refreshing ideas out there could stand a real chance at getting elected...
Posted by: Big Country at February 5, 2008 01:30 PMHow awesome is it that a Paulbot was the first to reply to this post? Very awesome, I say!
Posted by: t.ferg at February 5, 2008 01:48 PMActually both major Republican candidates have made great effort to at least claim the mantle of Conservatism, and even Obama got caught praising Reagan (and promptly thumped for it by the rest of the Dems). So even if we have considerable distrust of the existing Republican candidates, they are by far more Conservative than either of the major Democratic candidates, *and* they are at least claiming to be one of us.
Posted by: Georg Felis at February 5, 2008 02:10 PMI'm far from a "Paulbot" as you would say... it's just he's currently IMO the only person who actually does represent some form of "Change" in current race. ALL of them, from Clinton to Obama to McCain and Romney and all the rest are all 'status quo' lifetime political operators to whom "Change" means the "Change" of them (whoever may win it) getting into the White House... I mean really... the whole system is broken, possibly beyond repair. You got anything or anyone better? Please DO fill me in...
Posted by: Big Country at February 5, 2008 02:35 PMChange for the sake of change itself is not a good enough reason to vote for someone. Paul would certainly be a change - but not a good one. Just like Obama would be a bad change. So would Hillary. The very nature of an election IS change.
Yes, I do have someone better. Mitt Romney.
Look, I don't hate Ron Paul just because he's crazy. I won't vote for him because he's crazy, but I'm no hater. The man has a few good ideas but a few good ideas aren't enough to qualify a person to be President. The guy has absolutely discredited himself by his racist rhetoric, his encourageing of Truthers, and his desire to abandon Iraq. Those are just a few among many disqualifiers, but those few are quite enough.
Posted by: t.ferg at February 5, 2008 03:07 PM"John McCain, despite being only slightly more conservative than Hillary,"... One finds a large number of what can charitably be called "Chinese food" observations on the conservative blogsphere. Almost immediately after you read them, you're hungry for some meaningful analysis. The decision to support McCain is much more complicated than the largely bogus "comparison" given here.
The National Journal annual analysis of legislative voting patterns shows that, of course, Hillary is much more liberal than John McCain. But the interesting information about McCain's voting history is that, first, his "conservative" rating has dropped consistently since 1989 and, secondly, McCain could not be classified for 2007 because he missed more than half of the specific votes which comprised the voting data base.
The long term trend is much more worrisome than any apples and oranges comparison of Hillary and McCain' respective ideological beliefts.
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