April 08, 2008

As Sadr Collapses...

It becomes increasingly more amusing to watch the "impartial" international news media attempt to spin away unmistakable signs of progress in Iraq. The latest example of this sad phenomena is Reuters' account of Muqtada al Sadr's threat to end a ceasefire:

Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr threatened on Tuesday to end a truce he imposed on his militia last year, raising the prospect of worsening violence just as top U.S. officials prepare to testify on Iraq in Washington.

Sadr urged his Mehdi Army to "continue your jihad and resistance" against U.S. forces, although he did not spell out if this was an explicit call for attacks on American soldiers.

His warning came a day after Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki threatened to bar Sadr's movement from political life if the anti-American cleric did not disband his militia.

Despite the more than 7-month-old ceasefire, Sadr's followers have clashed with Iraqi troops and U.S. forces in the south of the country and Baghdad in the past two weeks in the country's worst violence since the first half of 2007.

al Sadr's Madhi Army suffered hundreds of KIAs—some estimate place as a high as 1%-2% of his entire militia—in operations across southern Iraq in recent weeks. The failure of the militia and the success of Iraqi forces has encouraged top Sunni, Shia and Kurdish members of the Iraqi government to form a unified front that has demanded that al Sadr disband the Madhi Army, or run the risk of having his party being disbarred from Iraqi politics.

Sadr's threat to end the truce is the most desperate political option available to him, and one of the few options he has left. His power has been drawn largely from the threat of withdrawing the ceasefire, but if that ceasefire is withdrawn, al Sadr has few more cards to play, and the resulting combat would likely mirror last recent combat on a much larger scale, perhaps resulting in far more physical destruction to his forces.

Sadr did not win in Basra, and runs the risk of having his militia destroyed if he decides to send it into combat again against an Iraqi Army that is far more competent than al Sadr's militiamen.

Muqtada al Sadr's relevance in Iraq will be determined by the choices he makes in coming days. The only real real question is how much his relevance will be diminished.

Posted by Confederate Yankee at April 8, 2008 10:07 AM

Sadr has got us right where he wants us, yup.

Posted by: daleyrocks at April 8, 2008 10:45 AM

Look for this MSM spin next: "Sadr and His movement more powerful dead than alive!" or "Holy Mooqy Strives for Martyrdom!"

Posted by: hikeup yourhijab at April 8, 2008 11:19 AM

Those with memories extending to '04 will remember that the Hon Sen John Kerry, when you could get an answer out of him, was all for increased training and support to Iraqi indigenous security forces AND a temporary build up of US forces; a "surge" if you will, of military might used to improve security and go after some of the splintered groups carrying out bombings and other attacks. Of course, this was also the Bush plan but we had no time for the Bush plan to go into effect, no we needed Kerry to get into office and get things rolling. That didn't happen but that bastard Bush just STOLE KERRY'S IDEAS!?!?!?!
That is a bitter pill I know but it may be the only way to get our Left-leaning citizens on board, even AFTER the victory parade. Remember the Marshall Plan was really the Truman Plan re-branded.

Posted by: megapotamus at April 8, 2008 11:45 AM


There is no way to get the goose-stepping Left on board, other than converting to their fascist ideology. The Left is more allied to Sadr, Zawahiri, and Ahmadinejad than they are to the USA.

Posted by: iconoclast at April 8, 2008 02:15 PM

The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 04/09/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the check back often.

Posted by: David M at April 9, 2008 11:49 AM