November 25, 2008
Somehow, This Benefits Mitt Romney
Drudge is citing a Russian analyst's prediction of the decline and collapse of the United States into regional mini-states:
A leading Russian political analyst has said the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily IZVESTIA published on Monday: "The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."
The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.
When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."
When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."
Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."
He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.
He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all." Panarin, 60, is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare.
Developing...
Somehow, I think Panarin's speciality of information warfare is more on display here than his grasp of American laws or global economics. If we go down as he fantasizes, Russia and China, with growing but far less impressive economies, would experience a collapse harder even than our own with far fewer capabilities to rebound due to their stifling economic systems. Oops.
The bright side, of course, as I alluded to in the headline is that this does mean Mitt Romney is once again poised to take advantage of this in his Presidential bid, this time apparently as a Presidential candidate of the United Northern States and/or the Eastern United States, depending on how the boundaries are drawn. Doesn't that double his odds?
That said, I must add that historically, the lower Atlantic States and the northern Atlantic states haven't shared that " distinct and separate mentality" as often as Comrade Pararin seems to think. As I recall, something of a dustup occurred in the 1860s as a result.
OH... and as far as the northern states.... are even Canadians really strongly influenced by Canada?
This comes around every generation.
I've still got a copy of "The Nine Nations of North America" around here somewhere from The early eighties.
We actually are a collection of different nations. That is what our Southern forefathers tried to tell the idiotic Yankees. Only this time I have to agree with the Russian. We are in an economic crisis that is only mirrored by the financial panic of the 1800's. Our country is broke and debt bound. Our politicians have assured their rise to class and race warfare and prejudices. In short, we are ripe for division. My thoughts on this are that it can't happen soon enough.
Posted by: David Caskey at November 25, 2008 06:09 PM"and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong"
clueless. simply clueless.
Hitler also predicted privately that the US would break up, it being inherently unstable.
Posted by: Bleepless at November 25, 2008 08:48 PMI suspect the "Atlantic states" would have a southern border of Virginia or Maryland.
Posted by: MikeM at November 25, 2008 10:45 PMOf course comrade Igor is absolutely correct. Any Canadian can tell you that we've long had a strong influence on our puny southern neighbour. Just look at the lengthy list of exports we've sent you to satisfy your hunger for talent: Celine, Peter Jennings, Gordon Lightfoot, Neil Young, Wayne Gretzky ... etc, etc. We've been secretly preparing to take over the US for decades now ... infiltrating your culture with our icons as we slowly seize control on the levers of power.
Damn that Igor. He had to go spill the beans.
Posted by: Justacanuck at November 26, 2008 01:25 AMAcademics (in any country) rarely have any concept of how the real world actually works -- they live in theoretical space and time. This guy sounds like he is spouting old Soviet rhetoric.
Marxism predicted that capitalism was "doomed to fail", but look what ideology got discredited first...and look what country disintegrated first.
The US has survived its own catastrophic civil war, its participation in countless foreign wars, the Great Depression, the social upheavals of the 1960s, September 11, and countless other domestic nonsense. Somehow, we have figured out how to work things out for ourselves. Unless we've all become paralyzed from the neck up, we'll bounce back from our current economic and political issues as well.
I agree this fellow sounds like a Soviet theorist recycling the old "We Will Bury You" Khrushchev-era propaganda. It's wishful thinking on his part: yeah, good luck with that one, pal.
That said, every time I look at a post-election map, I can't help but be struck by the same old red-state versus blue-state contrasts, where the more urban areas are blue and the more rural/small town folks are red. Take a gander at the 2008 county-by-county maps and the same contrast is back again, except the blue cancer is now spreading to red states too, with blue cities speckled against the red countryside.
Perhaps a split into "Urbania" and "Heartland" is an idea whose time has come? Unshackled by the urban-centric welfare programs and other government handouts (hopefully banned in "Heartland"), I'd imagine the "Heartland" GDP would outstrip "Urbania's" by oh, 10-1 in a decade or two. Let the blue states go bankrupt via handouts if they wish.
As Jefferson said, "A little revolution now and then is a good thing."
Posted by: W-K-B at November 26, 2008 12:16 PMNorthern border states are actually quite influenced by Canada. Clueless? Not.
Posted by: Mark at November 26, 2008 05:21 PM"Northern border states are actually quite influenced by Canada."
Yes, we all know how popular Canadian cuisine is in Seattle, Minneapolis, Detroit and Buffalo.
Posted by: Gary Rosen at November 27, 2008 04:31 PMand in the Republic of Texas, does that mean four more years of Bush?
Posted by: Willie at November 28, 2008 04:16 PMPlease, take California...you can start with Beverly Hills - nobody really wants Berkeley.
But seriously you've got to be kidding, Canada has "strong influences" eh???
Actually, this is a case of projection by the dear Professor. Let's turn the tables:
"Asked why he expected Russia to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in Russia will get worse as oil collapses. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings and will get a bullet in the head if they complain about it. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. [Name any Russian non-mafia company] is on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work, also without people as Russia has the lowest birth rate in the world, universal male alcoholism, and an alarming brain drain. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by sham elections and the hope that Putin can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."
He predicted that Russia will break up into smaller parts, with Siberia being absorbed in to resurgent China. St. Petersburg, where the influence from Sweden is strong, might survive as a Russian city state.
Posted by: Ed Joyce at November 30, 2008 02:09 AM"The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago ..."
Wow, he knew this would happen TEN YEARS ago! The guy's freakin' brilliant.
Like ya'll have been saying; He's unaware of how the U.S. (and the world's) economy actually works (not surprising for a Russian political analyst), and spouting thoroughly discredited old school propaganda ("We will crush you!").
Posted by: DoorHold at November 30, 2008 01:21 PM
