January 01, 2011

UFC 125 Tonight

I owe a shout-out to Stephan in the previous post for pointing out that UFC 125 is tonight. Frankie Edgar is defending his lightweight title against Gray Maynard, the TUF 5 alum that is the only person to have been beaten Edgar in his 14 pro fights. I checked out the sports betting news by BetUS and was mildly shocked to see that Edgar is the odds on favorite to retain his title. I disagree with the pros, and expect Maynard to decisively out-point Edgar to take the title. The conventional wisdom is that you can't take the title on points in a close fight, but I think Maynard simply has Edgar's number. Actual Result: Draw

Edgar-Maynard may be the headliner, but the fight I'm most interested in seeing is between two of my favorite fighters, the bad boy Chris Leben versus the Marine officer and combat hero, Brian Stann. Both fighters are tough strikers with knockout power, but Stann's almost purely a puncher, while Leben has serious ground game, even through he prefers to stand and trade punches. I'd kind of like to see Stann win this one, but doubt he will unless he is one of the few people that can find a soft spot in Leben's chin. I predict the Crippler takes out the Silver Star recipient in the first or second round by strikes or submission. If it goes to the third round, I think the odds swing back to even, giving Stann's cardio a chance to pull out a victory. Actual Result:Stann KOs Leben, 1st Round

For some reason, I just can't seem to bring myself to care about the Brandon Vera vs. Thiago Silva fight. If Vera can get his knees going he has a shot, but I'm predicting Silva grounds and pounds him after following a staggering punch in mid-to-late in the first round. Actual Result:Silva by decision

Further down the ladder, I'm predicting:

  • Diaz over Kim (submission) Actual Result: Kim by decision
  • Gomi over Guida (split decision) Actual Result:Guida by submission
  • Davis over Stephens (submission) Actual Result: Stephens by KO
  • Poirier over Grispi (strikes) Actual Result:Poirier by decision
  • Tavares over Barone (strikes) Actual Result: Tavares by KO, Round 1
  • Brown over Nunes (submission) Actual Result: Nunes by split decision
  • Soto over Roberts (decision) Actual Result: Roberts by submission, Round 1
  • Volkmann over McKee (strikes) Actual Result: Volkmann by split decision

Keep in my that I suck at guessing the winner of any given fight, and in any given slate of fighters there always seems to be at least one significant upset.

Update: Added results.

Posted by Confederate Yankee at January 1, 2011 05:06 PM