Conffederate
Confederate

January 08, 2008

The New Hampshire Primary Begins...

...with a route in the tiny hamlet of Dixville Notch, where Hillary Clinton didn't pick up a single vote among the 17 voters. Barack Obama got seven votes, John Edwards picked up two, and Bill Richardson picked up one. On the Republican side, John McCain picked up four vtoes, ?Mitt Romney two, and Rudy Giuliani picked up one.

As noted in the Fox News article, the small towns that opened door to voters at midnight are far too small to be seen as reflective of the state's trends.

Scott Elliott of Election Projection is predicting a very narrow 34% to 33% win for Republican candidate John McCain over Mitt Romney, and a significant 41% to 34% victory for Obama over Clinton, the once-favored Democratic candidate once seen by many as the inevitable Democratic winner.

Independent voters are the key to this primary, with the ability to vote in Democratic or Republicans. Mitt Romney's campaign is said to be hoping for enough independent voters to cast votes for Barack Obama and possibly siphon votes from John McCain to give him a victory. I think that is exactly what will happen.

My guesses are just that (guesses), but here they go.

  • Democrat
  • Obama: 42%
  • Clinton: 32%
  • Edwards: 18%
  • Richardson: 6%
  • Others: 2%
  • Republican
  • Romney: 33.5%
  • McCain: 33%
  • Huckabee: 11.5%
  • Giuliani: 10%
  • Paul: 8%
  • Thompson: 4%

I didn't include Duncan Hunter on the Republican side because I don't think he'll make even 1% after his hissy fit yesterday.

Update: So, how do we read the latest at Drudge that the New Hampshire Secretary of State is rushing to bring ballots to "Seacoast Hampton, Portsmouth and Southern Hillsborough Pelham, Nashua" and other cities running low on Democratic ballots?

If you run with the theory that independents are choosing between Obama and McCain, we could be looking at the seeds of a mild McCain upset by Mitt Romney due to the independents crowding onto Democrat ballots.

This would seem to all but end John McCain's presidential aspirations.

Posted by Confederate Yankee at January 8, 2008 09:43 AM
Comments

Well, even if McCain can squeek out a win due to "fake Republicans" voting in an "open primary", Romney can still claim a BIG MARGIN amongst Conservatives.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at January 8, 2008 01:54 PM

Even if Romney comes in 2nd, he still leads in delegates, money, and numbers of people voting for him total. He is placing well in every state and doesn't use a tag team partner like Huckabee and McCain do. Go Mitt!

Posted by: Cory at January 8, 2008 02:03 PM

Sinking McCain sinks the Republicans this time, I'm afraid.

Posted by: El Jefe Maximo at January 8, 2008 02:05 PM

"Sinking McCain sinks the Republicans this time, I'm afraid."

And yet if we vote for McCain in the general we still won't have a Republican president no matter who wins.

Posted by: Pat at January 8, 2008 02:18 PM

Mitt must lose. he says all the right things, but what i glean from it all is a lack of authenticity. He just tells people what focus groups say they want to hear.

My own acquaintance with Latter Day Saints is such, that initially i was excited about the Romney campaign, and even gave him the benefit of the doubt on his flip-flops on abortion and SSM. The LDS people I know are honest to a fault, and hard working t a fault. While Mitt meets the second criteria, I just don't trust the man.

So for me, the Mormon factor was never an issue in the negative sense, in fact it weighed in his favour.

I like Mike Huckabee and his message, which is more christian in the true sense than any of the past "religious right" candidates.

However, I think the man for this hour in history s John McCain.
I may not agree with his every position, but at least I know he's going to tell me what I need to hear, not neccessarily what I want to hear.
I believe he is the best person to counter the Islamic radicals, and another problem: Vladimir Putin. He can go toe to toe with this new Comissar-Tsar.

Kudos to Mitt for bringing up the issue of the Peoples' republic of China as a threat to the economy, but it would have more resonance had he started talkingabout that earlier, instead of slinging mud at Mssrs. Huckabee and Mccain.

Finally, there's the electability factor. We smigly say that Hillary Clinton is not likeable. By nominating Mr Romney, the GOP would essentially be placing their own Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket.

McCain and Huckabee both score well on likeability and integrity. McCain and Giuliani score well on national security and dealing with/standing up to bad guys.

Mitt, ufortunately comes off as the man who's trying to be everything to everyone, and that simply does not work. In a tight spot, you need to rely on judgemnet and principles, there's no time to pull a focus group together.

Posted by: Neal Ford at January 8, 2008 02:31 PM

No one will vote for a 72 year old president. It is insane. McCain would be another Bob Dole and he has all of his characteristics such as insensitivity, inability to withhold his caustic nature due to his seniority in the senate etc. The liberal media fears Romney which is why they have been piling up on him. He's a true leader with an incredible history of success and intelligence. No one can call him stupid like they called Bush (who had the same GPA as Kerry)

Posted by: Max at January 8, 2008 02:32 PM

McCain's not a Republican - he's a RINO. How many of you can remember:
1. The Gang of 14.
2. The Keating 5.
3. McCain-Feingold.
4. Offering $50.00 per hour for picking lettuce for a whole season.
5. Voting against Bush tax cuts.
Need I mention any more? McCain and Republican are what I would call an oxymoron. Emphasis on "moron".

Posted by: Ron at January 8, 2008 02:36 PM

And there is always the possibility that Fred Thompson finishes on top in SC and he can beat Hillary or Obama.

Romney is great. McCain would never win. He might pull in independents, but the base would not turn out. Certainly not the Christian right he has often bashed, nor those who were paying attention to him during shamnesty, nor those who care about SCOTUS, or wonder why he stood with John Kerry and against the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.

Anthropogenic Causation of Global Warming is an issue near and dear in the heart of leftists who want to expand government, so why is John McCain embracing it? Anyone who thinks it really is about the environment needs to rethink it - and ask themselves why the advocates fly so many jets so often, and why they own big houses and big cars.... if they think it is a 'crisis'. It's about economics, so what is McCain doing? Creepy.

Romney or Thompson or Romney and Thompson, either way.

Posted by: Kathy at January 8, 2008 02:40 PM

Sounds like a good Democrat election. Vote early and often. I love tradition. It would be awesome to look at the driver's licenses.

Posted by: Flyoverman at January 8, 2008 02:51 PM

While I don't vote single issue and am not an activist on this, I wonder why people call Mitt a flip flopper when he has changed from pro choice to pro life...?

Isnt' that the kind of change conservatives WANT to see in people? Isn't this a GOOD thing?

Changing the other way, or changing more than once, that would be a problem.

But name something other than abortion that mitt is an FF on... I don't understand anyone who says they don't trust him.

Posted by: Dave at January 8, 2008 02:52 PM

Ron Paul is steadily gaining, making good progress without blowing a lot of cash and energy.

Posted by: Schratboy at January 8, 2008 03:33 PM

Why isn't anyone bringing up the fact that Obama is of Muslim background. He only recently changed to Catholic. I also had heard that he sworn on the Quran when he was sworn into office.

Comments please

Concerned voter......

Posted by: Rich at January 8, 2008 03:53 PM

Rich -

Obama wasn't sworn in on the Quran - check it:

http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/muslim.asp

Posted by: Bobby at January 8, 2008 04:44 PM

Not enough dem ballots? Sounds like the VRWC at work to me.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at January 8, 2008 04:56 PM

I rejected Huck because in Iowa he wore his cross on his sleeve and invoked the bible beyond reason. Therefore he won't win the general. If the Evangelicals reject Romney because he is a Morman, he won't win either. Insane Paul can't win. My main issues are Islamofascism and illegal aliens. So McCain is definitly out. Hunter is my first choice on these issues.

Posted by: Frank Lee at January 8, 2008 06:23 PM

Rick,

You are off on two out of two. Not only didn't Obama take his oath on the Quran, he also isn't Catholic. Your source for such might be a tad questionable.

Posted by: Denis at January 8, 2008 07:19 PM