June 07, 2007
Is a Summer Proxy War Brewing To Protect Iranian Nukes?
And so the build-up begins:
Israeli intelligence officials have been warning for weeks that Syria is investing hundreds of millions of dollars in anti-tank weapons, antiaircraft rockets, and other missiles, and bolstering its presence along the Israeli border.Mohammad al Habash, a Syrian parliament member, meanwhile, told the Al Jazeera satellite channel this week that his country was actively preparing for war with Israel, which he said he expected to break out this summer.
I'd suggest taking that bit of news in this context:
A senior member of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government suggested that his country is running out of patience with a US-backed diplomatic overture to head off Iran's nuclear ambitions, The Associated Press (AP) reported.
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has already threatened the U.N. Security Council after threatening the destruction of Israel in the near future just days ago.
We also know that in the wake of last summer's battle in Lebanon that Syria and Iran moved rapidly to rearm the stockpiles of their Hezbollah proxies with over 20,000 short-range missiles and a significant quantity of small arms and ammunition.
According to Defense Update, Hezbollah's deputy secretary Sheikh Naim Kassem intoned that the terror group was preparing for another "adventure" with Israel this summer, and has been receiving anti-aircraft missiles and training directly from Islamic Revolutionary Guards at Iran's Imam Ali base in Tehran.
It seems that we are witnessing is a deliberate and calculated build-up of forces by Syria and Hezbollah for a probable summer campaign against Israel, an attempt likely orchestrated by Iran.
What would be the goal of such a campaign?
Any Israeli response to a summer war would necessarily involve the use of the IDF's strike fighters to hit enemy armor, troop concentrations, or rocket firing areas that are beyond the range of Israeli artillery.
With the recent build-up in training and equipment for both Hezbollah and Syrian anti-aircraft units, it seems possible that the goal of a summer war would be to draw Israel aircraft into an engagement so that they could be ambushed and shot down.
If Syrian and Hezbollah forces could draw Israel aircraft into range, volleys of anti-aircraft missiles could potentially bring down some of Israel's premier strike aircraft and pilots, including the long-range strike fighters that have been training for a possible Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.
If Israel loses a significant number of pilots and aircraft (Israel only has 25 F-15I "Ra'am" fighters, thought to be their preferred method of delivering "bunkerbuster" bombs against hardened Iranian facilities), then the probability of success of any Israeli air strike against Iran's nuclear facilities decreases.
The coming summer war may be designed for the sole purpose of buying the Iranian program the time it needs to come to fruition and produce a nuclear warhead.
Perhaps they could instead confound their foes by reusing, to an extent, the Six Day War game plan. Attack Iran with the long-range strike force (F-15I, F-16I, tankers), fending off the Syrians, if they choose to attack at a moment of perceived Israeli weakness, using the older F-15s and F-16s while attacking Hezbollah with the remaining A-4 and F-4 to keep them off-balance until the strike force has hopefully completed its task.
Posted by: Surly at June 7, 2007 11:31 AMWe need to get out of Israel's way and let them do what it takes to protect themselves...whatever that might be.
"Let slip the dogs of war"....
Posted by: LisaV (aka "Talismen - Lady Crusader against jihad) at June 7, 2007 12:26 PMIt seems that we are witnessing is a deliberate and calculated build-up of forces by Syria and Hezbollah for a probable summer campaign against Israel, an attempt likely orchestrated by Iran.
"Likely"...on what do you base this? The ConfedYank's own intelligence? I suspect you use the Dick Cheney filter of intel analysis.
Posted by: Random Guy at June 8, 2007 12:42 AMMaybe I'm just cynical, but I've begun to think that for radical Islamic politicians, proposing to destroy Israel is kind of like Republicans proposing to abolish abortion (or Democrats proposing Universal Healthcare). Sure these propositions get their supporters all riled up, but nobody ever really does anything. It's just political theater. Again, I'm probably just being cynical and threats on the international level should always be taken seriously.
Posted by: B.E.A.T. at June 8, 2007 02:45 AM"Likely"...on what do you base this? The ConfedYank's own intelligence?
Ramdom, did you actually, you know, read the post?
Both Hezbollah's deputy secretary Sheikh Naim Kassem and Syria's Mohammad al Habash indicated they are preparing for a summer campign against Israel, and both have been stockpiling and spending hundreds of million of dollars in weaponry. Iran has continually promised ot erradicate Israel, and soon.
I based my post on their words and actions, as carried by media outlets they chose to spoke with.
Now it very well may be that the conclusion I'm drawing are incorrect, but as no one can predict the future, what we have to work with as our best estimates based upon what people are doing, and what they say they are preparing to do.
The scenario I've drawn out seems quite logical to my way of thinking, but if you would like to lay out a contrary argument based upon what they say they are preparing for and what they are stockpiling for with their particular mix of weapons and projected order of battle, by all means, please provide an alternative scenario.
All of us are waiting with bated breath.
Posted by: Confederate Yankee at June 8, 2007 07:11 AMThe scenario I've drawn out seems quite logical to my way of thinking
Again, no evidence of some grand trans-national Islamic conspiracy, instead -- to your "way of thinking" is enough evidence that Iran has directly called Hamas and directed...etc. I'm not arguing that there isn't a connection between these parties, what I'm arguing is whether any of this stuff is as *coordinated* as your post seems to imply. And you have to admit that you don't have s**t for evidence for that --everything you implied is just to your "way of thinking". Hence the Cheney analogy.
Purple Avenger, the crickets are between your ears.
Posted by: Random Guy at June 9, 2007 01:10 AM
