Conffederate
Confederate

May 06, 2008

Calling It: Obama Wins N.C.

I just got off the phone with Mike Ash, Director of the Durham County Board of Elections in Durham, NC. He doesn't have any numbers as far as percentages of eligible voters making it to the polls at this point, but said several polling locations have already hit record numbers. That is as of 11:30 AM. It appears that the record turnout in early voting on Sunday is expected to continue through today.

This matters because Durham is something of a bellwether of African-American voter turn-out in North Carolina. A high African-American turnout—and it appears that is indeed occurring—makes a Clinton win impossible.

At this point, the only thing worth discussing is Obama's margin of victory here in the Tarheel State. If he wins by double-digits, he can claim to have staunched the bleeding over Crackerquiddick and the damage done to him by his pastor of 20 years, Reverend Jeremiah Wright.

If Obama only wins by 5-8 points however, it will be viewed as the sign of a faltering, damaged campaign.

Update: Turnout in Wake County has been varied, according to Wake County Board of Elections Director Cherie Poucher. There were significant lines at some precincts as polls opened this morning, while at other polling places, traffic has merely been steady. Turnout is higher than it would be for a normal primary, but it is too early to know if we're looking at record numbers. We should know more by approximately 3:00 PM.

If hinted-at trends continue, Barack Obama's victory here in North Carolina could be significant.

Posted by Confederate Yankee at May 6, 2008 10:42 AM
Comments

High turnout? WOOHOO!!! That means Operation Chaos is working! (at least I hope so) :)

Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 6, 2008 11:03 AM

By the way, not so sure Durham is all that "black." Looks like it's 51% white and hispanic and 48% black. I wonder how many in that "record" turnout is because of Operation Chaos?

Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 6, 2008 11:07 AM

Bob, you're confusing me, shouldn't record turnout help Hillary? Or do you dismiss Operation Chaos? I live in Union County and there was NO ONE but myself at the polls. Lots and lots of poll workers.......all for me :) But then again Union County went for Bush in 2004 70%-30%

Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 6, 2008 11:22 AM

Somehow, I doubt that significant #s of black Reps in NC are cross-voting for Hill. Not an expert here but....

Posted by: megapotamus at May 6, 2008 11:22 AM

What about the white Reps?

Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 6, 2008 11:27 AM

YES!!!!

Frankly, I hope Obama wins the Democrat nomination for president. I don't want either of them as president (especially with their current "Be Blue-Collar" plan, a glaringly obvious charade), I've got to admit that Obama's inept bowling & somewhat-better basketball are MUCH more in-touch than Hillary's Crown Royal whiskey & babbling about guns & back-woods cabins. I saw that speech, & I swear she couldn't have been more incoherent if she'd taken PCP a few minutes earlier. I won't even go into her other issues (Obama definitely has his share, but Hillary's screwed up non-stop since Mr. Clinton became president).

Posted by: Thomas at May 6, 2008 11:36 AM

Did he get the Nifong vote?

Posted by: M. Simon at May 6, 2008 11:37 AM

I don't think Nifong can vote in prison can he? :)

What's weird is that I grew up in Illinois and moved to North Carolina a couple years ago. I don't ever remember an actual political ad on tv. Illinois is deep blue and North Carolina is deep red so I've always been blessed not to see all the crap......until now. I'm inundated with Obama ads.

I was watching a tv show called "Bones" on hulu.com. It's a site that shows lots of old (and some current) tv programs. There are about 6 ads (all the same) through an hour episode and they only last about 15 seconds. Until yesterday they were always Intel or Chevy. Last night they were ALL OBAMA ads.

Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 6, 2008 11:45 AM

There were significant lines at some precincts as polls opened

That was called disenfranchisement in Ohio during the 2004 elections. I wonder what it's called now.

Posted by: Hogarth at May 6, 2008 11:56 AM

I turned out to vote last friday as part of Operation Chaos--lots of OBama supporters there.

Capitalist Infidel--you think NC is deep red? I guess in someways, and in some places it is, but on the other hand the state that has only had 2 republican governors since reconstruction. Yeah, NC may tend red on a national level, but local/state is a totally different picture. And if you live in a place like Durham, even more so. I did a voter registration check on my street. 70% democrat, 15% republican, 15% unaffiliated. Not exactly solid red! Incidentally, I grew up in Durham, lived in Chicago for a few years, and moved back to Durham, so my experiences kind of mirror your own!

Posted by: Khaos at May 6, 2008 12:11 PM

Keep in mind what the previous "record" is. NC primary turnout has traditionally be very, very small.

2006 - 12%
2004 - 16%
2002 - 21%
2000 - 18%


http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/content.aspx?ID=70

Posted by: BooneWeb Blogger at May 6, 2008 12:12 PM

Operation Chaos? Unbelievable! I have to say how sad of a day it is that a right wing nut job like Rush Limbaugh can legally try to impact the state of our Presidential Election. What is wrong with you people? What is so wrong with having a smart person run the White House?

Posted by: Marie at May 6, 2008 12:53 PM

Marie,

Does your bumper sticker read:

Free speech for me, but not for thee.

Posted by: ACLU at May 6, 2008 01:02 PM

I fail to see how a double-digit win, fueled almost entirely by a large black vote, is evidence he has staunched the bleeding over any of the scandals in which he is involved. Once he is able to win an election in a state without large black and upscale white populations, that may be the case, but as of now, I don't see how that is true.

Posted by: boris719 at May 6, 2008 01:19 PM

I wonder how much Obama's victory is being shorted due to the inability of blacks to get ID's.

Posted by: Vinny B. at May 6, 2008 01:29 PM

Marie, there is nothing wrong with having a smart person in the White House. Did you have someone in mind? I don't see one with a (D), all I see are a pair of elitist, jerk lawyers who feel it is their entitlement. Neither has a viable plan for any major issue facing the nation today, much less the next four years.

p.s. I'm assuming you didn't mean McCain as the "smart person run the White House"

Posted by: Gus Bailey at May 6, 2008 01:31 PM

Vinnie, what the H@!! are you talking about?

Posted by: Gus Bailey at May 6, 2008 01:33 PM

Republicans don't want intelligence in the White House and they don't really even want someone with a real military background. Give them a fear feeding warmonger with a low I.Q. and rich parents and they will walk over glass for them. Why is that ?

Posted by: dhani at May 6, 2008 01:38 PM

Of course I meant deep red in the national election. Just as the town I grew up in Wheaton Illinois was deep red the state of Illinois is deep blue.

By the way, I bet Marie didn't mind Kos trying to do the exact same thing in New Hampshire and Michigan. The intellectual dishonesty on the left is stunning!

Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 6, 2008 01:39 PM

Fear mongering like Republicans will take away your social security? Fear mongering like Republicans are going to reenact the draft? Once again the intellectual dishonesty on the left is stunning!

Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 6, 2008 01:42 PM

Don't worry about the ID's Vinnie, Diebold builds NC's voting machines. Even if they MANAGE to get ID cards, the Republicans can still steal the elections - right?

I mean even if the Dem's bring out the illegals, and the dead to vote, the Rep's still control the machines - right?

Somebody help me out here.....

Posted by: Lokki at May 6, 2008 01:54 PM

Bob, looks like turnout in North Carolina was actually quite weak. What now?

Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 6, 2008 02:05 PM

And don't forget, Jimmuh Catah got a big whopping 50.08% of the vote. Bwahahahaha!!!

Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 6, 2008 02:07 PM

OPERATION CHAOS..CHAOS..CHAOS..CHAOS!

Posted by: ddh at May 6, 2008 02:08 PM

At this point, the only thing worth discussing is Obama's margin of victory here in the Tarheel State. If he wins by double-digits, he can claim to have staunched the bleeding over Crackerquiddick and the damage done to him by his pastor of 20 years, Reverend Jeremiah Wright.

not so fast there. as you note, if obama does indeed do well its because there's massive black turnout for him and that turnout is breaking 95/5 for obama over clinton. that result augurs precisely nothing with regards to the general electorate since blacks are also going to vote 95/5 for whoever the Dem is in the general election. the stickiness of obama's scandals (in the general election) can only be estimated by how the vote white breaks in the Dem primaries, since its only the white vote that can be influenced one way or another.

please remember blacks in durham also voted 95/5 to elect mike nifong even after it was clear he was framing the players.

Posted by: neil at May 6, 2008 02:28 PM

For me, this election season has become all about the media.

The media is what first got me remotely interested in it last year when they made a god out of Obama. I wasn't alive to see what they did with JFK, but that was the only thing I could connect it to. I'm only 37, but it was the most stunning display of press backing I've seen ---- considering what the man had done thus far in his career and what they could tell me about his tangibles. I didn't hold that against Obama, because they weren't telling enough about him to tell, but it said a lot about the media.

Now, with the defense they are doing for Obama and some they have done for Wright, I'm beyond disgusted with the whole lot.

I promise I'll never spend another cent for an American news product.

The thought of my paying even the tiniest part of their salary is abhorrent to me now and will stay that way.

Posted by: usinkorea at May 6, 2008 02:29 PM

"Operation Chaos? Unbelievable! I have to say how sad of a day it is that a right wing nut job like Rush Limbaugh can legally try to impact the state of our Presidential Election."

But it was perfectly fine when the MSM influenced the Republican primary right Marie?

Once again, the hypocrisy of the left shows itself.

Posted by: Conservative CBU at May 6, 2008 02:47 PM

Barack is the man I am praying for him. This man is the one that we have been waiting for

Posted by: Lakisha Jackson at May 6, 2008 02:53 PM

Lakisha-

You're Jewish?

Posted by: Anon at May 6, 2008 03:07 PM

Hey, Marie - "impact" is a noun, not a verb. Literacy helps when making an argument...

Posted by: Grey Fox at May 6, 2008 03:18 PM

Unfortunately it took segregationist Governor Wallace to reveal the truth that "there's not a dime's worth of difference between" Republicans and Democrats. The Democrats willingly went along with the War in Iraq, suspension of Habeas Corpus, detaining protesters, banning books like America Deceived (book) from Amazon, stealing private lands (Kelo decision), warrant-less wiretapping and refusing to investigate 9/11 properly. They are both guilty of treason.
Write in Dr. Ron Paul and save this great nation.

Posted by: Mike Trenton II at May 6, 2008 03:20 PM

The election isn't over until Diebold says it is.

Posted by: robertsgt40 at May 6, 2008 03:21 PM

I accidentally came across this board and am shocked and the venom here. I'm a liberal Dem living in a blue island in Texas (Austin) and have always assumed that the media overplayed right wing nut jobs. I've never met one in person. I see I was wrong. You people actually exist.

Posted by: Kate at May 6, 2008 03:24 PM

What is wrong with everyone here?
?? What would everyone be shouting if there was a "record turnout" of white people voting for a white person, because he was the white candidate? Isn't anyone bothered by this thing besides me? Are you all afraid of being called a racist for acknowledging the elephant in the room? You have my permission to speak freely and call the beast by it's given name.

Posted by: mike reed at May 6, 2008 03:42 PM

Just got back from voting - at 4 this afternoon over 1,500 people had voted at my precinct in Durham. That's higher than usual. There were a handful of non-blacks in the room when I voted.

It will be interesting to see the percentage that Barry Hussein wins by - I hope it is in single digits. Marxist crypto-muslims really need to be president of some country other than ours.

Posted by: hoodie in teh south at May 6, 2008 03:57 PM

Anyone to the right of Stalin would be considered a "right wing nut job" to America hating, Saddam loving, terrorist appeasing, far left wing fanatical kook Kate.

Posted by: Capitalist Infidel at May 6, 2008 04:01 PM

voted in asheville today at around 11:00. I was the 199th voter....poll workers said it had been steady but not busy. there was no wait at all.

Posted by: stike at May 6, 2008 05:21 PM

Voted mid-afternoon in Kenilworth neighborhood, Asheville. Very blue, lots of Obama signs, saw only one for Hillary. Polls very busy for a primary, African-Americans very much in evidence as voters and boosters. Prediction: Obama landslide.

Posted by: Will T. Power at May 6, 2008 06:33 PM

Dear Lord,It's funny reading how some folks are yammering about having "intelligent" people in the WH.
The same people carping about this are most likeley near literally at half the IQ that GW possesses, not that it matters being simple logic trumps all...But "smart Obama" types lack both.
For the record.
Most Americans "as you will see in the general" dont want a whimpy marxist running the WH, dont want an obvious empty suit with zero backbone to represent them in facing down tyrants around the globe...who by the way are ALL pretty much unanimous in wanting the Big O to win the big dance the same as the smart folks, only the tyrants are just licking their chops and masturbating with glee at what a boon it would be for them, similar to boon in store for the mob and teamsters exept they tyrants run countries dead set on bringing the good ole USA down.

We dont want a president that will pull our troops out of the war just so he and his followers can sleep good at night wile at the same time 100,000's of people become slaughtered before we finish what we went there to do(yes I realize smart O folks realize we can never win a war and war never solves anything...the same smart folks said the exact same things in past wars that were won and changed the course of history)....but who cares what you think Nancy, go back to spitting on soldoers to show your version of patriotism or whatever you do to amuse yourselves but stay out of the way of the common folks who are doing what needs to be done.

Ya know, come to think about it, some smart people arent smart at all.

Didnt some real super smart people, in a European country just pass actual "rights" for foilage....ummm....yeah....Us common folk can follow "smart" stuff like that....Very typical of smart Obama types and those that follow him.

If smart is what you so dearly want in the WH, then vote for that little Iranian leader arma-whatever, I hear he is a real super smart fella.
Oh wait, your an Obama follower...thats pretty much the same deal in the end.

Posted by: Drider at May 6, 2008 07:04 PM

Trivia questions for those wanting a "smart" person in the White House:

Q1) How many Presidents have had an MBA from Harvard?

A1) One.

Q2) Which President?

A2) The one currently residing at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Thus endeth the lesson.

Posted by: C-C-G at May 6, 2008 08:28 PM

Will T.,
I lived in Kenilworth for 12 years, moved away about 8 years ago to the Fairview area. Very cool.

Posted by: Grey Fox at May 6, 2008 09:02 PM

But C-C-G, that doesn't count cuz Dubya bought that degree with his daddy's dirty Nazi-money.

As for Hogarth, it's an idiot. It obviously doesn't understand the difference between bad planning and deliberate obstruction, especially since the long lines in Ohio generally cropped up in Democratic Party-controlled voting districts.

Finally: alas, Grey Fox "impact" has also become a noun through common usage. I'm not sayin' I like it, I'm just sayin'... :)

Posted by: Casey Tompkins at May 6, 2008 09:06 PM

John Ryan, I regret to inform you that I did not say what you hallucinated me saying. And as I am not in the habit of discussing what other people hallucinate, I'll leave it at that.

Posted by: C-C-G at May 6, 2008 09:40 PM

especially since the long lines in Ohio generally cropped up in Democratic Party-controlled voting districts.

Which is, of course, exactly where one could routinely expect to find bad planning.

Posted by: Hogarth at May 7, 2008 06:19 AM

> IF A PASTOR IS KNOWN BY THE COMPANY THEY KEEP!
>
> When the Rev. William Procanick put his hand on the Bible during his
> sex-abuse trial in Oneida County Court earlier this year, he swore to
tell
> the whole truth and nothing but the truth. But as the former Clinton
> Pastor was sentenced Friday, January 22, 2008 for three years in
prison
> for first-degree sexual abuse and endangering the welfare of a child
> [inappropriately touching a 7-year-old girl at his home March of
2007],
> Judge Michael L. Dwyer said Procanick sacrificed his honesty the day
he
> testified.
>
> Okay, so now that Bill and Hillary Clinton's pastor has been convicted
of
> child molestation, will we see the same furor directed a t Hillary
that
> O bama has had to endure these last few weeks? I don't think so!!!!
>
> IF A CANDIDATE IS KNOWN BY THE PASTOR THEY KEEP......
>
> Then you need to email this article to everyone you know. Here the
> CLINTON'S former Pastor is convicted of unspeakable Child Molestation.
So,
> if Obama bears the guilt for his former pastor's comments, then
Hillary
> h as to be equally tainted by this guy's crimes.
>
> For proof, please see: http://www.uticaod.com/homepage/x1637676857

Posted by: THE at May 7, 2008 08:48 AM

> IF A PASTOR IS KNOWN BY THE COMPANY THEY KEEP!
>
> When the Rev. William Procanick put his hand on the Bible during his
> sex-abuse trial in Oneida County Court earlier this year, he swore to
tell
> the whole truth and nothing but the truth. But as the former Clinton
> Pastor was sentenced Friday, January 22, 2008 for three years in
prison
> for first-degree sexual abuse and endangering the welfare of a child
> [inappropriately touching a 7-year-old girl at his home March of
2007],
> Judge Michael L. Dwyer said Procanick sacrificed his honesty the day
he
> testified.
>
> Okay, so now that Bill and Hillary Clinton's pastor has been convicted
of
> child molestation, will we see the same furor directed a t Hillary
that
> O bama has had to endure these last few weeks? I don't think so!!!!
>
> IF A CANDIDATE IS KNOWN BY THE PASTOR THEY KEEP......
>
> Then you need to email this article to everyone you know. Here the
> CLINTON'S former Pastor is convicted of unspeakable Child Molestation.
So,
> if Obama bears the guilt for his former pastor's comments, then
Hillary
> h as to be equally tainted by this guy's crimes.
>
> For proof, please see: http://www.uticaod.com/homepage/x1637676857

Posted by: THE at May 7, 2008 08:48 AM